Late at night, a mass dive! The new U.S. plan revealed, involving the Strait of Hormuz!

The Strait of Hormuz Keeps Stirring Market Nerves!

According to CCTV International News, citing Axios, sources said that the Trump administration is considering pressuring Iran by taking over or blockading Iran’s Khark Island, forcing it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the related plan is still under review.

Also, according to Xinhua News Agency, on the 19th, Moussavi, Iran’s ambassador to the UK and its representative to the International Maritime Organization, said that the Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels, except those belonging to the enemy. He said that Israel’s recent attack on Iran’s energy infrastructure “crossed yet another red line,” and Iran will take corresponding countermeasures; any assets belonging to the United States and Israel will be regarded as legitimate targets for attacks.

As of 22:25, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices were down 0.61%, 1.26%, and 0.93%, respectively. Technology stocks fell across the board: Oracle and Micron fell by more than 3%, Tesla and Facebook fell by more than 2%, and Nvidia and Microsoft and Google fell by more than 1.5%. With Brent crude staying above $100 per barrel, market worries about inflation surging have intensified. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that closing the Strait of Hormuz could further increase inflationary pressure.

Major European stock indexes also saw a plunge during the day. As of 22:25, Germany’s DAX30 was down 1.10% after earlier being up over 1%; France’s CAC40 was down 0.92% after earlier being up close to 1%; and the UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.99% after earlier being up 0.66%.

A New U.S. Plan Has Been Exposed

According to CCTV International News, on March 20, the U.S. “Axios” network cited sources as reporting that the Trump administration is considering pressuring Iran by taking over or blockading Iran’s Khark Island, forcing it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources said the related plan is still under review and no final decision has been made.

Meanwhile, the day before, the U.S. “Wall Street Journal” also cited sources as saying that the United States is increasing troop deployments to the Middle East and may seize Iran’s key oil export hub in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

The report said that a U.S. Marine Corps expeditionary force—about 2,200 troops in size—is sailing from Japan to the Middle East aboard amphibious assault ships, expected to arrive in about a week. The United States may use this force to occupy Khark Island as leverage to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Former commander of the U.S. Central Command, General Frank McKenzie, said, “(The U.S. military) can destroy its (Khark Island’s) oil infrastructure, which would cause irreparable damage to Iran and the global economy. Or it can seize it and use it as a bargaining chip.”

In addition, islands near the Strait of Hormuz such as Qeshm Island, Kish Island, and Khark Island could also become targets for seizure. A retired U.S. Navy vice admiral, John Miller, said the U.S. military would be in a “favorable strategic position,” from where it can intercept Iranian speedboats and shoot down missiles threatening traffic through the strait.

Khark Island is in the northwest of the Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers off Iran’s coast. It is about 6 kilometers long and 3 kilometers wide. It is Iran’s largest crude oil export base, and 90% of Iran’s crude oil is exported from there. On the 13th, the U.S. military carried out strikes on military targets on the island.

Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, international oil prices have risen by about 50%. Attacks on oil facilities in recent days have further pushed up oil prices. The Wall Street Journal cited some Saudi officials as saying that if fighting drags on into the second week of April—meaning supplies cannot resume and the Strait of Hormuz cannot be kept open to navigation—international oil prices could keep climbing, rising from $150 to $165 and even $180 over the course of a few weeks.

The head of the International Energy Agency warned that it could take six months to restore oil and natural gas transportation in the Gulf region.

Iran’s Latest Statement

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 19th, Moussavi, Iran’s ambassador to the UK and its representative to the International Maritime Organization, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua’s reporters that Iran is willing to facilitate vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but only on the premise of fully respecting Iran’s sovereignty and security, and the arrangements should be coordinated with the Iranian side.

Regarding the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Moussavi reiterated Iran’s position: “The Strait of Hormuz is open to all vessels, except those belonging to our enemies. We are exercising our right of self-defense to protect the integrity of our own territory.”

Moussavi said that the aggressive actions by the United States and Israel in places like the Strait of Hormuz have “created a very complex, severe, and catastrophic situation for us.” “The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the result of their illegal military activities against the Iranian people and Iran’s territorial integrity.”

Data from the International Maritime Organization show that since the U.S. and Israel launched large-scale military actions against Iran on February 28, at least seven seafarers have died in attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz area, and several others have been seriously injured. At present, about 20,000 seafarers are still stranded on ships in the Persian Gulf.

Moussavi said that the security situation in the Persian Gulf, especially the Strait of Hormuz, is crucial to Iran. Iran welcomes any initiatives and suggestions aimed at achieving safer international shipping and providing seafarers with safer security assurances, and will continue to cooperate with the International Maritime Organization and maritime authorities of various countries.

He said that as a member state of the International Maritime Organization, Iran clearly understands its own commitments and obligations, but those commitments and obligations should be fulfilled on the premise that Iran’s territorial integrity, national dignity, and sovereignty are respected. Iran is willing to facilitate vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but the relevant arrangements should be coordinated according to the security situation and should also be coordinated with relevant Iranian authorities.

Moussavi said that the current war is one forced on Iran by the U.S. and Israel—an act of aggression against Iran. Iran is more inclined to resolve disputes through diplomatic means. The U.S.-Israel attacks on civilian facilities such as elementary schools are crimes committed against the Iranian people. “We need to raise public awareness of such atrocities and criminal activities.”

He said that Israel’s recent attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure “crossed another red line,” and Iran will take corresponding countermeasures; any assets belonging to the United States and Israel will be regarded as legitimate attack targets.

Helium Prices Surge 40%

Disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has driven helium prices noticeably higher.

A recent estimate by Bank of America said that, depending on different market conditions, helium spot prices have already risen by about 40% at their highest. Analysts noted that when supply is tight, key industries that demand helium tend to prioritize supply security over price, which also makes it easier for suppliers to raise their quotes.

Some overseas media outlets pointed out that Iran’s missile attack on the Ras Laffan Industrial City of QatarEnergy’s Wednesday targeting the Ras Laffan Industrial City caused damage to one of the world’s most strategically important natural gas hubs and could trigger concerns about global liquefied natural gas and helium supply chains.

Helium is a key material in the semiconductor industry. As a byproduct of natural gas processing, Qatar supplies more than one-third of the world’s helium. Continued interruptions to Qatar’s LNG facilities could further push up helium prices for semiconductor companies, and there are currently no viable alternatives.

On March 2, QatarEnergy, a state-owned energy giant and the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, announced that its facility with an annual production of 77 million tons will be shut down and announced that LNG cargo shipments have encountered force majeure.

This Tuesday, in a report to investors, Fitch Ratings analysts wrote: “Gas disruptions in Qatar are tightening helium supply. Helium is a natural gas byproduct used for semiconductor manufacturing and medical imaging.” As the Iran conflict drags on and Qatar’s natural gas supply continues to be disrupted, Asia’s semiconductor supply chain faces an increasing tail risk from helium shortages.

Editor: Tactical Heng