Ethereum Faces New Downward Risk, Analysts Warn It May Drop to $1200

On March 30, crypto analyst Leshka.eth expressed concerns that Ethereum’s price movement is currently exhibiting a technical pattern similar to historical “bull market traps,” indicating a risk of further decline in the short term, potentially targeting $1200, which represents a potential drop of about 40% from current levels. Technical indicators show that the Supertrend indicator on the daily chart for ETH has previously signaled a “bullish” trend twice (in October 2025 and January 2026), both of which failed to sustain and subsequently triggered significant corrections of 45% and 48%, respectively. A similar structure is now appearing around the critical level of $1990, and a breakdown below this level could trigger a new wave of accelerated decline. The fundamentals and capital flows also appear weak. On a macro level, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and recession expectations are suppressing risk appetite, while the market’s expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have notably shifted further out. In terms of capital flows, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF has recently seen a net outflow of about $300 million, with on-chain demand dropping to a 16-month low. On-chain data indicates that the number of large holding addresses (≥10,000 ETH) has stagnated since peaking at the end of 2025, and there are no significant signs of accumulation among “whale” and “shark” addresses in the 1,000 to 10,000 ETH and 100 to 1,000 ETH ranges, respectively, reflecting a state of distribution and wait-and-see. In the absence of strong buying support, if key support levels are breached, ETH prices may face further downward pressure.