Institutions: Continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities in the aluminum sector

CITIC Securities believes that, according to Reuters, from March 28 to 29, EGA and aluminum smelters under Alba were attacked one after another, involving 3.1 million tons per year of capacity, and the extent of the impact is still unclear. After the earlier 560,000 tons per year of production cuts, the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East region continues to heat up. The disruption risk attributable to rising European energy costs is also worth monitoring. The long-term supply-and-demand fundamentals for the aluminum industry remain solid; as supply disruptions come to the fore, they may drive prices to rise beyond expectations, and we continue to favor investment opportunities in the aluminum sector.

Guotai Junan Securities believes that, in the short term, the situation in the Middle East remains grim, with electrolytic aluminum supply further affected and expectations for production cuts strengthening. After the holiday, demand will resume gradually and gradually shift to the peak season; the market still needs to wait for a turning point in inventories. For alumina, domestic alumina operating capacity as a whole is showing a downward trend. Driven by geopolitical factors, higher oil prices raise freight rates, and cost increases at the margin drive a rebound in alumina prices. Looking longer term, incremental supply growth in the aluminum industry remains limited, while demand still has growth points; the industry may maintain high levels of profitability.