March 30 Review

These actions are for my own records only. The risks are enormous—do not follow blindly [Taoguba]

Today’s trades

Morning session

Sold Guangxi Energy in batches after it failed to hold the limit-up

Sold Xinneng Taishan at the 0-axis

Bought Haixia Innovation partway through the session

No trades in the afternoon

Current positions

Haixia Innovation: 30%

Cash: 70%

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Market sentiment

The index opened lower but then moved higher, closing with two consecutive green days. Turnover was 1.92 trillion yuan. The resilience at the bottom of the index was demonstrated.

Currently, the index is maintaining a bottom-range consolidation pattern, and there will still be fluctuations in the short term.

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Data summary

1, Number of limit-ups: 62. The count of limit-ups is in the middle range. Compared with yesterday (78), the limit-up count has declined

Limit-up trend: 83-84-39-78-62, limit-up count declined

Indicator notes: below 50 is low position; 50-90 is mid position; above 90 is high position

2, Number of consecutive limit-ups: 6-23-10-10-12. The count of consecutive limit-ups has increased

Indicator notes: below 10 is low position; 10-20 is mid position; above 20 is high position

3, Number of limit-downs: 10. Limit-downs have been running in the high range. Compared with yesterday (2), the number of limit-downs increased significantly

Limit-down trend: 1-1-8-2-10, loss-making effect has expanded

Indicator notes: below 3 is low position; 3-6 is mid position; above 6 is high position

4, Limit-up board fill rate: 78%

Board-rate trend: 79%-86%-68%-83%-78%, fill rate has entered the mid range

Indicator notes: below 70% is low position; 70%-80% is mid position; above 80% is high position

5, Advances/Declines: 2867:2464. The number of advancers has fallen back to the mid range

Advancers trend: 5136-4874-916-4337-2867

Indicator notes: declines above 4000 is low position; advancers above 4000 is high position

6, Market breadth (height): 7-8-3-4-5, upside room continues to rebound

7, Data summary

Current data also shows a choppy range-bound trend. The number of limit-downs is relatively large, indicating that the loss-making effect is in an expansion phase. However, the overall data has not yet fallen back to the low range, suggesting that short-term sentiment still needs time to adjust.

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Main market theme: none

Side hot themes: none

Intraday hot themes: pharmaceuticals, computing power, aluminum, commercial spaceflight, agriculture

Consecutive-limit leader: none

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Market milestones:

5th consecutive limit-up: Dayang node (theme rotation)

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Today’s consecutive-limit break and “reverse speculation” trades:

Yesterday’s consecutive-limit break with reverse speculation performance:

Oriyude (computing power, Northeast region, small green candles)

Lionhead shares (lithium batteries, limit-up)

Shuhua Sports (sports industry, small green candles)

Ningbo Energy (energy-character names, compute power synergy, limit-down)

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Sentiment cycle analysis

Big cycle position: power sector cycle (defensive/hedging cycle)

Small cycle position: sentiment retreat phase

Loss-making effect: high

Cycle height: 8

Breakout leader + power sector main upswing leader: Huadian Liaoneng (8)

Power sector trend leader: Huadian Energy

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Observations from the trading screen

1, Leaders hitting the limit-down

Power, as the prior main theme, had Huadian Liaoneng push to an 8-limit-up height—but it hit the limit-down, directly causing a broad retreat in the entire power sector. Besides Huadian Liaoneng, Huadian Energy and Henan Energy Holding also hit limit-down. In the mid range, Xinneng Taishan hit limit-down as well. In the low range, Guangxi Energy got the momentum to speed to a board, then failed and reversed, closing down -4%+. The loss-making effect was huge!

Due to the clear negative feedback from the opening call auction for power, defensive-type pharmaceuticals saw a one-line limit-up. Minohua became the highest board. With the main theme retreating, the market began testing new sub-themes, with obvious sector rotation characteristics.

2, Forward-looking scenario

At present, there is no clearly emerging new sub-theme that can take over power. The market is in a rotation-and-testing phase. Until a new main theme appears, or until power regains strength, the market will continue to rotate. The biggest characteristic of rotation is that the loss-making effect is huge, and pullbacks generally happen during this period.

There are two possibilities for the future:

First, the market keeps rotating without any new sub-theme appearing, and power returns again. This requires the power leaders to stop the decline quickly, and then show a strong new low-range follow-up board leader.

Second, after multiple rounds of rotation, a new breakthrough leader appears, and a new sub-theme enters a main upswing. Until then, the sub-themes are temporarily defined as rotation themes.

At present, it looks like the market’s overall defensive environment has not changed. So first, the possibility of a technology-sector main upswing can be ruled out. Therefore, the market is very likely to follow the first scenario: after the leaders stop falling, power gets traded again.

The above is only a forecast and may not be correct. The key right now is to focus on defense rather than offense. Before the main upswing arrives, either stay in cash or participate with a small position.

During this period, be especially careful not to place big bets on high-priced stocks—it can cut in half very quickly!

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Personal positions

Buy targets

Haixia Innovation

Second, in the current critical stage of the Middle East war, there is a meeting between both sides. The timing is extremely subtle.

Third, the power leader hit limit-down, and the market has switched themes, creating a desire to avoid power.

Therefore, today when this news came out, in my own judgment, the news is beyond expectations, and I chased and bought the sector.

There were no limit-ups today. Ping’an Flat had a “bad board” and failed. The sector overall did not fully ferment. That’s a bad thing and also a good thing—expectations were not fully priced in. If tomorrow Ping’an Flat turns from weak to strong, then that would be beyond expectations, and the sector will be sure to ferment.

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Yesterday’s trading plan: recap

1, Catching a latecomer leader (leak pick-up): Guangxi Energy

I’ve always emphasized that a strong leader makes a strong follow-up move; strong follow-ups can reflect a strong leader, and a strong sector. Today is a concrete application of this line. Whether it’s a consecutive-limit leader or a trend leader, they both opened in deep water and triggered the “nuclear button.” At this time, chasing Guangxi is definitely not a wise choice.

2, Standing in the “energy-character” tier: Xinneng Taishan (overnight)

The auction was already beaten by Minohua, and there was no limit-up board either—so there was no chance to buy the board today. Therefore, there were no buy points today.

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Tomorrow’s trading plan

There is no clearly strong sector on the board today, and rotation characteristics are obvious. Wait for the leader to stabilize—do not participate in rotation.

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Notes

Please read the article carefully. Content that has already been covered in the recap will not be answered if you ask again.

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Disclaimer

The above tickers are not recommendations—only for recap purposes. Buying and selling are your own decisions; risks are your responsibility!

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