The final ultimatum has been postponed by 10 days. Where will the crude oil risk premium go?

Tonghui Finance APP news—On Friday, March 27, international crude oil prices steadied after Trump again postponed the Iran energy agreement deadline. Trump said Iran requested a seven-day extension, but he chose to grant a ten-day grace period, setting the new deadline as April 6. The adjustment temporarily eased market concerns about an immediate supply disruption, but under the dominance of geopolitical factors, the risk still tilts upward. Brent crude oil trades around $103.5 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is close to $96.5 per barrel. Traders are assessing the fragility of Gulf-area flows and the knock-on effects across the global energy chain, while also watching for shocks from additional LNG supply and signals of divergence in inventories at major consuming hubs.

Short-term impact of the geopolitical extension on crude oil prices

While extending the agreement removes some immediate pressure, supply-side fragility has not eased. At present, about 8 million barrels per day are offline, and larger-scale transport flows in the Gulf remain highly exposed to risk, so the geopolitical premium is difficult to fall meaningfully. Trump had pointed out Thursday that it remains unclear whether the United States is willing to cooperate with Iran to reach an agreement. Iran, through intermediaries, responded to the 15-point peace proposal supported by the United States, but it had previously rejected similar contacts multiple times and continued to propose its own conditions, including implementing a transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz through draft legislation, in exchange for providing security assurances for vessels. Even though both sides continue to maintain a military presence, the United States is also stepping up deployments in the region, and worries about supply disruptions remain high.

Current status of Strait of Hormuz navigation and the risk of supply disruption

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ latest warning from Iran reiterated that the strait’s situation has not changed; it remains effectively closed and bans any passage by vessels involving the United States and its allies, with violators facing severe measures. Iranian local media reported that after the warning, three container ships of different nationalities were turned back outside the strait. Although Iran allows 10 tankers to pass as a goodwill gesture and releases Malaysian vessels that were stuck, actual day-to-day traffic volume has already shrunk dramatically compared with normal levels before the conflict, and overall navigation remains highly constrained. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an insurance program aimed at enhancing shipping through the strait is about to be launched, and Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim also confirmed that the relevant vessels have been permitted to return. While these measures release some easing signals, their actual impact is limited compared with daily flow volumes. Competition over control of the strait is directly tied to the safety of about 20% of the world’s crude oil transport corridor; if restrictions persist or expand, the costs of a supply-chain disruption will quickly transmit to the spot market and the structure of the forward curve.

Tight LNG supply and dynamics in the natural gas market

Supply risks in the LNG market have notably intensified. A tropical cyclone has forced three LNG plants in Australia to cut production. These plants together account for about 8% of global supply. Combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of Qatar’s largest LNG facility due to an attack, it further tightens an already tight supply pattern, creating clear price pressure for Asian buyers. U.S. natural gas prices continue to rise. In the previous month, Henry Hub futures approached $3 per MMBtu. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that last week’s inventory drawdown was 5.4 billion cubic feet, far above the five-year average of 2.1 billion cubic feet; inventories fell to 1.829 trillion cubic feet, only 0.8% above the seasonal average. This inventory drawdown, larger than expected, strengthens the market’s view of a near-term tight balance; mid-term crack spreads and seasonal demand factors are likely to continue providing support.

Global refined product inventory changes and crack spread observations

In Europe’s ARA region, refined product inventories fell by 1.15 million tons to 5.3 million tons over the week. The decline was mainly driven by gasoline down 0.75 million tons, naphtha down 0.45 million tons, and fuel oil down 0.13 million tons, while gasoil inventories increased by 0.57 million tons to 2.15 million tons. Even though the total inventory level has diverged, the crack spreads for middle distillates remain firm. The ICE gasoil crack spread in early trading this week stays above $50 per barrel. Singapore’s refined product inventories surged by 2.2 million barrels to 52 million barrels over the week, the highest level since December 2024. Among them, middle distillates increased by 1.23 million barrels, light distillates rose by 0.5 million barrels, and residual fuel oil increased by 0.471 million barrels to 24.5 million barrels. Inventory divergence reflects both regional demand differences and logistical bottlenecks, supporting the crack-spread structure for downstream products.

Traders use the above inventory data to judge the resilience of mid-to-lower downstream crack spreads. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, these types of support factors will become a key buffer for price volatility.

Huge amounts of information and precise analysis are all on the Sina Finance APP

责任编辑：凌辰