Is there an opportunity for commercial spaceflight to become the main focus? Share your thoughts for tomorrow!!!

The answer to the title is in the content! [Taoguba]

In today’s market, the index opened lower and then rallied to close higher, basically the same as last Friday. The fact that the index has opened lower and closed higher for two consecutive days indicates that, in terms of the trend, this is essentially a range-bound, sideways movement within the 3,800–3,960 box. That is, the gap-up window from last Monday, March 23. Here, it’s been “going back and forth” in consolidation. Repeated back-and-forth oscillations are highly likely.

As shown in the chart above, for the index here, as long as it doesn’t break 3,800, everything is safe. One certainty is: the A-share index here seems to not be too responsive to the market outside of it. The outside market can be weak, but the A-shares look a bit more resilient—could this be that the impact of the Middle East war is slowly weakening? If so, that’s a good thing.

On the sentiment rhythm, here I don’t think it’s a major selloff/outflow tide—on the contrary, the index that’s showing strength has a faint sense of a new cycle starting. When power and oil & gas petrochemical, etc., weaken because the Middle East conflict eases, the market suddenly abandons power and turns to other sectors. Here, there are sufficient conditions for this: it’s also after the end of a small cycle that a new small cycle is starting. The probability of that is pretty high. But what we need to pay attention to is the rhythm. Any small-cycle vehicle (sector) is always based on a quantified rhythm. That means: today is the climax, tomorrow is differentiation; tomorrow’s differentiation, then quantified pullbacks with re-entry, or a high-to-low rotation/sector switch. Then in the new small cycle, this sector keeps reappearing. Therefore, going forward:

Commercial aerospace, AI computing power (hardware), new energy, and pharmaceuticals will gradually rotate to take shape as four main turning points. The key is: once the trend appears, can it show up repeatedly in everyone’s line of sight? That’s what constitutes the brewing trend of the new mainline.

Now, let’s talk about the issue with power. If we consider the timeline of power, in fact it has evolved for more than a month. I feel that after the Chinese New Year, when the Middle East conflict broke out and petrochemical surged, I thought that power and new energy might be an “energy substitute” for oil-to-power. But as the war evolves, there may be some easing trends, and oil prices might fall. In the short term, that’s the trend that disrupts oil prices and the power sector. However, in the long run, oil prices staying elevated is a long-term situation. Besides:

The conflict between Israel and Iran/Iraq is a life-and-death enmity. Jews and Muslims are irreconcilable. And they are right there in the Middle East. For decades, they’ve been fighting on and off and still haven’t resolved this deep-rooted hatred. So as long as oil is in the Middle East, oil prices can’t possibly fall back to the original prices before the conflict—or even lower. This is the long-term trend. But when it maps onto A-shares, it always has its short-term rhythm. That’s why today the market abandoned the power sector.

So the conclusion is: after power has been “played” and thrown off by funds today, tomorrow at the start of the session there may still be another dip; the day after tomorrow, when there’s a quantified expectation for power to make a comeback with volume, therefore, going forward, power likely won’t surge as a whole sector, but there are still individual stocks that remain “live.” This is something to pay attention to.

------- Thoughts for tomorrow -------

As for the index, based on the analysis above, there’s no need to worry about risk. The key is to match the rhythm with sector rotation.
From the current perspective of quantified thinking: for commercial aerospace, tomorrow’s acceleration leading spot still carries heavy risks. Quant funds can easily turn around and pull up other sectors. When conflict sectors move from oil & gas to petrochemicals to power, and then to today’s non-ferrous aluminum and agricultural fertilizers—actually, the market’s selectable sectors are not many. Tomorrow, commercial aerospace may differentiate but not necessarily become a selloff/outflow. AI computing power may once again appear in the front row with a re-opening/turnaround or consecutive boards. Conflict-related oil & gas/petrochemicals/fertilizers/non-ferrous may surge then give back with a pullback. Overall, expectations for rotational sectors aren’t many. The key is how to choose—how to choose the safer ones. Focus with practical methods and how you apply them.

------ Core stock commentary ------
Since it can’t be done to comment during the trading session, for the retrospective review post, this column will appropriately increase/delete additions depending on the situation, depending on the post’s popularity. If the number of people boosting support/giving tips is too low, this sector will be canceled directly. Whether it’s kept or not depends on everyone.

Commercial aerospace:
This sector mainly saw a wave of limit-up rallies today, and popularity also reached a climax. So the core leading stocks are basically just three or four. One is the high-grade leader Shenjian Co., Ltd. (神剑股份). One is Aerospace Power (航天动力), which led intraday. One is the former leading stock Aerospace Development (航天发展). And also the previous days’ popular concept Rise for Technology (再升科技). These four logics directly avoid board-stacking trades on acceleration or stocks being “tapped to a one-price limit-up” (topping the board). But if there’s a pullback during the intraday trading, the quantified model will pay attention. Nothing else needs to be said.

AI:
Today this sector had stronger computing power—things like fiber optics, leasing, optical modules, etc. This sector still has a probability of becoming the mainline in this cycle alongside commercial aerospace. In addition, pharmaceuticals and new energy solid-state/energy storage have a rotation-propelled subsidiary probability. Therefore, tomorrow AI mainly remains the “live mouth” progression contest, focusing on whether today’s limit-up stocks can continue. Pay attention to today’s limit-ups. Falsheng is an internet-celebrity stock with very poor fundamentals. Since I’ve been avoiding it myself, if there truly are risks, refer to last year’s situation with Zhongyida when it topped out. Hangdian Co., Ltd. (杭电股份), Guiguan Network (贵广网络), and Jiu’an Medical (九安医疗) each have their advantages.

New energy / energy storage:
I’ve been stuck on this. The logic of this sector is the same as power. If power is not working today, will this sector still be viable tomorrow? First, look at what happens with Rongjie Co., Ltd. (融捷股份) afterward. Guosheng Technology (国晟科技), Tianji Co., Ltd. (天际股份), and Duofutuo (多氟多) were the main players in last year’s solid-state wave.

Other matters:
Today, because of a piece of news, Pingtan Development hit the daily limit in a first board. Hefei China (合富中国) and Zhangzhou Development (漳州发展) followed up with rallies. When there is no clear mainline, Pingtan Development is generally quite attractive for popularity. For now I don’t have an opinion, because I’m watching it. The pharmaceutical sector has always been led by Minovoa (美诺华). Today there are some solid 连板 (consecutive limit-up) echelons—for example, Lianhuan Pharmaceutical (联环药业), Tianjin Pharmaceutical (津药药业), and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical (双鹭药业), which are 2 consecutive limit-ups. Also, Yatai Pharmaceutical (亚太药业) and Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (东诚药业), which are first limit-ups. For pharmaceuticals, the key day tomorrow is whether it can hold up against the siphon pressure and then strengthen again. Then pharmaceuticals can be looked at a bit more favorably. Personally, I think the probability is not too high. For the good news in the conflict sector—aluminum—this might be a one-day trip. But petrochemical price increases affecting today’s agricultural sector may still lead to a stock-by-stock行情. Mainly China Nonglian (中农联合), Su Li Shares (苏利股份), and Jinjian Miyi Industry (金健米业). In the end, this sector’s definition is an extension of the conflict, and it also belongs to the area nobody pays attention to. It might end up producing a type of stock like Minovoa earlier (last week was when power became hot).

------- Personal focus -------
Pingtan Development: The logic is that because the mainline is weakening, Pingtan Development—due to its identifiability with a first-board rally—is being watched.
Guangxi Energy: The logic is that power is actively positive in the early session, and popularity is very strong—when everything is “full and flourishing,” orderly and complete, it indicates that popularity. The watching is while it’s underwater; consider the thinking about a comeback/re-entry.

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Statement: The logic above may involve certain stocks. I strictly remind everyone: the involved stocks do not constitute an investment basis or recommendation for any third party. Investing involves risk; for short-term trades, be cautious.