Trump's Influence Fades: Market Immune to Verbal Assurances as U.S. Stocks Drop for Five Consecutive Weeks

On March 30, as conflicts in the Middle East escalated and policy uncertainties increased, the U.S. stock market faced downward pressure, with the S&P 500 index recording its fifth consecutive week of decline, marking the longest losing streak since 2022. Despite U.S. President Trump’s repeated attempts to signal calming measures to stabilize market sentiment, investor reactions have noticeably weakened. Market analysts indicate that as the conflict drags on without resolution and policies fluctuate, the ‘Trump put option’ effect is fading, and investors are no longer trading solely based on policy statements; they are even beginning to engage in reverse operations in the absence of substantial progress. Meanwhile, oil prices remain high (with WTI crude surpassing $100), exacerbating global ‘stagflation’ concerns, coupled with the uncertainty in the Middle East, leading to heightened risk aversion in the market. The VIX volatility index rose above 31, significantly higher than the historical average. Institutions generally believe that without substantial easing of the situation in the Middle East, particularly the stabilization of the Strait of Hormuz, mere policy rhetoric will struggle to reverse the downward trend in the market.