Hormuz is disrupted again, with zero ships passing through on Sunday, and multiple vessels being denied entry!

The crisis of the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to deepen. No vessels were detected passing through the strait all day on Sunday, while only three vessels were recorded on Saturday, showing no substantial improvement compared to the initial phase of the blockade. Meanwhile, diplomatic mediation is underway from multiple parties, but drone attacks have spread the conflict into Kuwait and Iraq.

According to Morgan Stanley’s 28th daily tracking report on the Strait of Hormuz published on March 29, no vessels were detected completing transit on Sunday. Although three vessels were recorded passing through on Saturday, the overall traffic remains extremely limited and far from returning to normal levels.

According to reports from CCTV News, Pakistan is convening Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey to hold consultations on ending the conflict. Iranian officials stated plans to implement stricter access and fee regulations for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, media reports indicate that Iran has made limited concessions: according to Pakistan’s foreign minister, Iran has agreed to allow two Pakistani-flagged vessels to pass through the strait daily, with a cumulative total cap of 20 vessels.

The maritime monitoring platform Windward points out that the conditions for transit permits in the Strait of Hormuz are becoming increasingly stringent and opaque, with approval standards frequently changing. Vessels, including bulk carriers, livestock transport ships, and sanctioned oil tankers, are facing refusals or waiting for approval. The congestion situation west of the strait continues to worsen, with over 50 container ships currently stranded.

Dramatic Drop in Transit: Zero Vessels Crossed on Sunday

Since the outbreak of the blockade crisis, Morgan Stanley has been issuing daily tracking reports for 28 consecutive days, monitoring the number of crossings, freight rates, and related dynamics in real-time for different vessel types.

According to the latest data, the number of vessels crossing the strait on Sunday was zero, and only three vessels were recorded on Saturday.

Iran has made limited openings to Pakistan. According to Pakistan’s foreign minister, Iran has promised to allow two Pakistani-flagged vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, with a cumulative upper limit of 20 vessels.

The symbolic significance of this arrangement outweighs its practical significance. Before the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the number of vessels crossing daily far exceeded this scale; relying solely on the exemption for two vessels cannot effectively alleviate the impact of the comprehensive blockade on energy trade.

Conflict Spillover: Drone Attacks on Kuwait Airport and Iraqi Oil Fields

The geographical boundaries of the conflict are breaking through the Strait of Hormuz itself. On Saturday, a drone attacked Kuwait International Airport and targeted the Majnoon oil field in Iraq.

The Majnoon oil field is an important oil-producing area in southern Iraq, and the attack has raised further concerns in the market regarding the safety of regional energy infrastructure. The attack on Kuwait Airport underscores that the tension has spread to the surrounding countries of the Persian Gulf, thereby expanding the risk exposure of the energy supply chain.

Alternative Routes: Yanbu and Fujairah Maintain High Loading Levels

Despite the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, some alternative shipping points are still operating. The daily loading volume at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu is approximately 3 million barrels per day, while the daily loading volume at the UAE’s Fujairah port is about 2.5 million barrels per day.

The high loading data from these two points indicates that some oil-producing countries are actively utilizing alternative export routes to bypass Hormuz for crude oil transportation. However, whether these alternative capacities can long-term compensate for the blockade gap, and whether global buyers can smoothly receive the corresponding volumes, remain key variables of ongoing market concern.

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