Guoxin Futures: Short-term supply tightening coexists with long-term oversupply pressure; aluminum oxide fluctuates within a range with intensified tug-of-war

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-30T08:38:12+00:00

On Friday, aluminum oxide prices fell over 3%, while the spot average price slightly increased. Tightening supply and expectations of increased demand drove a short-term price rebound, but inventory pressure remains high, and long-term supply and demand are still relatively loose. Prices are expected to fluctuate between 2600 yuan and 3000 yuan, with attention to capital flows.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-30 08:38:12

Abstract generation in progress

On Friday, alumina fell over 3%, with the main contract increasing by more than 30,000 lots. In terms of spot prices, according to SMM data, as of February 27, the average spot price of alumina was 2,622.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. According to research by Mysteel, in Henan province, the spot transaction for alumina was 0.3 million tons, with a transaction price of 2,700 yuan/ton (ex-factory price), with alumina being shipped from factories to traders, flowing to the northwest. According to SMM data, as of February 26, the weekly operating rate of alumina production capacity was 77.17%, remaining below 80% since mid to late January. The phase tightening on the supply side is gradually affecting the circulation in the spot market and raising concerns about tightening circulation in the future. After the holiday, the spot price of alumina has gradually stabilized and rebounded. From the perspective of market funds, after the Spring Festival holiday, funds have clearly returned, with the overall position of alumina futures recovering from over 400,000 lots before the holiday to more than 530,000 lots today. The increase in long positions drove the price to reach a recent high of 2,890 yuan/ton, but the price faced pressure from profit-taking by longs and increased short positions, falling again below the 2,700 yuan/ton level. Overall, during this phase, a reduction in supply and an increase in demand, along with expectations of tightening spot circulation, provide some bullish support for alumina prices. However, domestic social inventory pressure is significant, and the long-term situation of oversupply has not been reversed, and there are also expectations of easing on the cost side. It is expected that alumina will fluctuate within the range of 2,600 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton, with a focus on changes in fund flows and a strategy of buying low and selling high. (Guosen Futures)

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

2 Likes