CITIC Securities: China's Optical Fiber Export Ratio Significantly Increased, Industry in a High Boom Cycle

On March 30, CITIC Construction Investment Securities reported that in February of this year, China exported 3,779.9 tons of optical fiber, amounting to 790 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 63.6% and 126.8%. If converted to kilometers, China exported approximately 25.2 million core kilometers of optical fiber in February, accounting for about 65% of the monthly effective production of optical fiber in the country. If fiber optic included in cable exports is added, the proportion of fiber optic exports would be even higher. Based on the export amount, the impact of rising optical fiber prices on performance is expected to be not very pronounced in the first quarter. In summary, overseas markets are scrambling to purchase optical fiber produced in China, and Chinese optical fiber suppliers are in a state of “no worries about sales.” Therefore, the market does not need to be overly concerned about the optical fiber procurement by domestic telecom operators. Overall, the demand for optical fiber is being driven by overseas telecom networks, AI, drones, and other factors, pushing prices to continue rising, and the industry is in a period of high prosperity, continuously recommending the optical fiber sector.

In addition, CITIC Construction Investment reported that the export ban on lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe continues to evolve, with the timeline for lifting the ban still unclear. A prolonged suspension will affect domestic raw material supply in the second quarter. Furthermore, overseas energy supply is tight, and the remote locations of mining areas and a shortage of diesel will impact the operation of mining equipment and power supply in mining areas, adding further uncertainty to an already tight supply situation. On the demand side, under the disturbances of geopolitical conflicts, overseas demand for EVs, energy storage, and others is marginally strengthening, and lithium battery demand is expected to continue to exceed expectations throughout the year. At the same time, industry inventory remains at low levels, which will amplify marginal changes on both the supply and demand sides, providing significant upward momentum for lithium prices.