Analysis: BTC long-term holders' profitability has plummeted to 3%, and market bottom signals have not yet been triggered.

DeepFlowTech · 2026-03-30T07:33:55+00:00

On-chain analyst MorenoDV pointed out that the unrealized net profit of long-term BTC holders is approaching a critical turning point, but has not yet triggered a market bottom signal. LTH profitability has declined significantly over the past 142 days, currently still slightly above zero, and has not entered the liquidation zone. Future trend changes should be monitored.

DeepFlowTech

2026-03-30 07:33:55

Abstract generation in progress

Deep Tide TechFlow message: March 30, according to on-chain analyst MorenoDV_ (@MorenoDV_) who posted on CryptoQuant, the adjusted unrealized profit of long-term holders (LTH) (NUPL) is nearing a key turning point over the long term, but market bottom signals have not yet been triggered.

Since the peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has been sharply compressed from 58% to 3% within 142 days, reflecting a significant deterioration in investor sentiment and the composition of their holdings. However, LTH-NUPL is still slightly above zero and has not yet entered the full liquidation range that historically was necessary for forming a market bottom.

The analyst noted that historically, true market bottoms have formed only after LTH holdings fully shifted into losses. The current environment is more akin to a late-cycle stress phase rather than complete liquidation. The recommendation is to focus on signals that LTH-NUPL continues to break below zero, together with long-term compression in both price and volatility; historically, this condition has strongly matched asymmetric entry opportunities.

BTC1.16%

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