Tom Lee once again predicts that the "crypto winter will end in April," but his track record of predictions has caused a stir in the community.

In two days, it will be April, and Lee’s prediction will soon have an answer.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies, recently stated that the current “mini crypto winter” is nearing its end, and will conclude by April 2026 at the latest. He cited historical analogies from the 1987 stock market crash and the 2011 U.S. debt ceiling crisis, noting that extreme negative sentiment itself is a signal of a bottom. However, trust in this “Wall Street’s biggest crypto bull” is rapidly diminishing—his previous predictions of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 and Ethereum hitting $7,000-$9,000 have significantly missed the mark, leading Canadian billionaire Frank Giustra to publicly retort that his forecasts are “embarrassing.”

Tom Lee is back.

This co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors recently stated in an interview with cryptocurrency podcast host Farokh Sarmed that the current downturn in the crypto market “is either over, or will end by April at the latest.” He characterized the current phase as a “mini crypto winter,” stating that the market is in the final stage of correction.

According to multiple media outlets such as Benzinga and U.Today quoting the original interview, Lee’s exact words were: “I think the crypto winter is either over or will end by April at the latest. So I feel like we’ve almost crossed through winter.” He further added: “I think what’s happening now is a rage quitting, which is a good signal. Because every time Bitcoin pulls back, when people give up on Bitcoin, that’s when it bottoms out.”

Historical Analogies + On-Chain Data: Lee’s Argument Framework

Lee’s judgment is not merely based on intuition; he provides a complete chain of arguments.

On a technical level, he referenced the calculations of analyst Tom DeMark, estimating that Bitcoin’s bottom is expected to be around $60,000, and Ethereum’s bottom is approximately $1,890. Lee pointed out that Ethereum’s recent price movements are highly similar to the S&P 500’s trend during the 1987 stock market crash and the 2011 U.S. debt ceiling crisis, implying that the current situation may only require one more brief dip to confirm the bottom.

On the on-chain data level, Lee noted that long-term holders are maintaining their positions rather than exiting, and exchange balances are continuously declining—these signals typically appear during the accumulation phase near market bottoms.

On the funding layout level, BitMine Immersion Technologies, where Lee serves as chairman, is backing his judgment with real capital. According to OurCryptoTalk, BitMine increased its holdings by over 65,000 ETH in late March, bringing its total holdings to over 4.6 million.

On a macro level, Lee holds an optimistic view on risk assets in 2026, citing reasons such as: the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh possibly adopting a “dovish” stance, U.S. economic activity starting to recover after three years of decline, and inflation falling back to pre-pandemic levels. He even reiterated his annual target for Bitcoin of $200,000 to $250,000 in an interview with CNBC earlier this January.

Prediction Record: Direction Often Correct, Numbers Often Wrong

The issue is that Tom Lee’s prediction history is a double-edged sword.

According to CCN’s analysis, Lee predicted at the beginning of 2025 that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year. Bitcoin did set a historic high of approximately $126,000 in October that year, but then quickly retraced, closing the year around $88,000—far from his target. Even more disappointing to the market was his prediction at the beginning of January 2026 that Ethereum would reach $7,000-$9,000 by the end of January, while Ethereum had already dropped below $2,200 at that time, retracting over 52% from its peak.

According to Yahoo Finance, there have also been public disagreements within Fundstrat. The company’s head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell, in a 2026 outlook report for paying clients, provided a baseline scenario indicating a “significant pullback” in the first half of the year, with Bitcoin potentially returning to the $60,000-$65,000 range and Ethereum to $1,800-$2,000—standing in stark contrast to Lee’s public optimistic comments. According to Wu Blockchain, this internal report advised clients to increase cash and stablecoin positions and wait patiently.

Blockworks provided the most accurate assessment of Lee: “His predictions are best and worst at the same point—always too early.”

Community Reaction: Teasing the “Contrarian Indicator”

The discussion thread on the Reddit community r/CryptoCurrency regarding this news received 40 upvotes and 68 comments, but the overall tone in the comments is skeptical. One user, after tallying Lee’s prediction accuracy, remarked, “When he says something, doing the opposite is correct.”

The backlash on social media has been even more intense. Canadian billionaire and mining investor Frank Giustra directly responded on social media after Lee’s latest prediction was released, simply saying two words: “Stop it,” and called his continuous bullish forecasts “embarrassing.” Giustra has always regarded Bitcoin as a highly speculative asset, asserting that physical precious metals are the true inflation hedge.

On the X platform, one user summarized: “He called for $180,000 BTC and $7,000-$9,000 ETH by the end of January. After this, I don’t want to hear any more of these paid ‘expert predictions.’ Retail investors believed them and ended up leaving with losses.” Another user was even more direct: “He’s just a broken record.”

Market Status: Can April Validate?

As of late March, Bitcoin is priced at about $67,000, down approximately 47% from its historical high of about $126,000 in October 2025. Ethereum is trading in the $2,100-$2,200 range. Continuous inflows into spot ETFs are providing some support for prices, and the progression of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation is also improving market sentiment.

However, not all analysts agree with Lee’s timeline. Some institutions predict that the downturn may extend into the second half of 2026, especially in the context of ongoing uncertainties such as the Iran conflict and recurring inflation. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer previously viewed Bitcoin around $60,000 as the cycle bottom but also ruled out the possibility of a V-shaped rapid rebound, believing the recovery is more likely to be “slow and grinding.”

In two days, it will be April. Lee’s prediction will soon have an answer.