March 28 – Next Week's Rebound Role Competition PK Analysis

Old rules: praise first, then read, develop good habits for making money…

The emotional leaders Huailiao are experiencing high-level fluctuations with positive feedback, Huaneng is providing positive feedback, and the old leader YN Energy is showing high-level positive feedback. However, we also need to guard against Huailiao and YN Energy being cooled down over the weekend. If the three leaders face adverse feedback on Monday (low probability), it could lead to a significant divergence in the direction of the low-position rebound in electricity computing. If the negative feedback is too strong (low probability), it may affect the speculative play of the rebound… It cannot be ruled out that the trend play may shift from speculation to performance…

In terms of the big picture, we need to first confirm the positive feedback conditions of the three major emotional leaders (Huailiao, Huaneng, YN Energy) next week, which would confirm that the market still belongs to a large-scale cycle of electricity computing, and then think about how to play the rebound…

Due to the serious homogenization of the market, detailed analysis of core varieties is rarely done in regular articles, mainly to avoid homogenizing my own model. Therefore, the usual review articles mainly emphasize rhythm and problem-solving ideas… Today, I’ll make an exception and talk about my aesthetic and thoughts on consecutive boards and relays. If there are differing opinions, feel free to correct me…

Four-board echelon

a. Taishan, fiber optic cable attributes, under China Huaneng, mainly driving varieties in the fiber optic cable direction. The advantages are a light plate and low price for the masses, while the drawback is too many one-word boards…

Why did Friday’s bidding jump from +4% to +8% with an additional 100 million at the last second? It’s important to understand this detail (my personal understanding is that after seeing the increased orders from Guangxi, Taishan wanted to pick the low-hanging fruit, so those who initially wanted to pick the fruit, such as Zhongmin and Hunan, surrendered). Who placed the order at the last second of the bidding? (Most likely it was the white coat or a quant from Ziyang East Road trying to grab the top, similar to the situation on March 25 with Aorede; we will see on Monday if it goes public)

The speed of the board on Friday was very quick; basically, after 9:30:01, no orders could get in, only those willing to place orders before 9:30 could enter… As long as Monday doesn’t open low, actually opening at +1% to +10% is reasonable. If it opens low, it might still survive without disappointing expectations, provided the bidding has volume, ideally at least 150 million in volume for a relay… If it opens high, there shouldn’t be too much volume…

b. Meinuo, institutional style, breaking the board and following the trend, no further analysis.

c. Rongjie, institutional style, breaking the board and following the trend, no further analysis.

Two-board echelon

a. Southeast, the advantage is a clean chip structure, but the downside is it starts with 00… On Friday, it mainly followed the attributes of energy storage and batteries, while also having synergies with electricity computing and military industry attributes. The stock characteristics are relatively smooth, mainly driving in the battery direction…
The board sealing strength on Friday was quite good, making it one of the varieties with relay potential in the 2-to-3 PK on Monday… Opening at +6% to +10% on Monday is reasonable, provided there is volume, ideally around 100 million in bidding volume…

b. Guangxi, 3 boards in 6 days, the advantage is the 6s and energy lineage, while the drawback is the chip structure… Mainly driving in the energy and power direction…

The one-word acceleration board on Friday felt a bit hollow; after withdrawing bids, the strength of the added orders was insufficient, relying on the counterpush from Guigang before adding orders…
Currently, the market defines it as a rebound leader, but its chip structure doesn’t conform to my personal aesthetic for previous rebound varieties. Authentic rebound varieties should ideally have only one clean limit-up before confirming their rebound identity to easily achieve consecutive acceleration. This one-board startup followed by three days of strong upward lines and one big long-legged board has accumulated a large number of profit-taking chips over five or six days. If it tops again with explosive volume on Monday, the selling pressure from outside will not be able to absorb it… Especially if it opens near +8% to +10% without volume, it would be quite awkward…
Unless it intentionally shows weakness on Monday (like Huailiao on March 19) and opens near +1% to +3%, providing an entry point for outside buyers, otherwise it’s not suitable for relaying…
Another unexpected scenario is if it continues to strengthen and top with a one-word board, sealing orders larger than Friday, such as 1.5-2 million hands… Then it can switch hands on Tuesday…

c. Jinko, thermal power attributes + green energy, the advantage is a relatively clean chip structure, but the downside is it has a slightly larger plate and does not start with “能” or 00…
Many teachers say that Friday’s board lacked quality, believing that Jinko’s limit-up on Thursday was ahead of Guangxi, but did not achieve a one-word board on Friday, which is seen as low expectations and weaker than Guangxi. My understanding differs here…

On Friday, Jinko did not achieve a one-word board. Objectively speaking, its strength was indeed not as good as Guangxi, but the reason it couldn’t achieve a one-word board and had to switch hands is twofold: first, the plate is large, and second, the board on Thursday was actually a “setup board.” Observant friends will understand that the board exploded on Wednesday deliberately to wait for Huailiao to break before making the first board reversal, so Thursday’s gap reversal was clearly premeditated… There have been many such setups for low-high rebounds before; those who understand know what I mean, so I won’t elaborate…

Smart outside capital knows it’s a setup, so naturally, they are unwilling to push Jinko to a one-word board on Friday because of the larger plate; once it fails to hold, it would lead to losses. Therefore, switching hands was a wise choice. Even if it switched hands on Friday, it was blasted several times, and even with a first-board teammate assisting, it still proactively exploded, indicating that the previous setup’s main force had cleared out the chips. The relaying on Friday was by a new batch of main forces, and the chips had completely exchanged hands…

Knowing it lacks the strength compared to Guangxi, why still lead and seal multiple times, and with considerable force? It resembles Huailiao on March 20, indicating that the newly entered main force is determined to continue to battle with Guangxi on Monday… The premise is that it cannot open below +5%. If the bidding in the last few seconds shows ambition to position, for example, if it opens with +5% to +7% on explosive volume of 150 million, then there is an expectation for accelerated advancement…
Another scenario is if Guangxi tops with a massive order of 2 million hands, not allowing for a joint effort, then Jinko can actually open reasonably under any circumstance, positioning as a supporting role; trying to counter Guangxi would be difficult…

d. Shenjian, follows the commercial aerospace attributes, mainly driving in the commercial space direction… An old and worn topic, insufficient material, complex and dirty chip structure, heavy locked-up shares, Shunhao and Zaiseng basically fall at the second board. Subjectively, I believe the 2-to-3 transition likely won’t attract attention, thus not suitable for relaying… Unless the military sector reverses during the day…

e. Jinmei, 3 boards in 5 days, mainly driving in the coal chemical direction, with a common point that it shares hydrogen energy attributes with Huailiao… The reduction in volume on Friday’s second board accelerated, with an overwhelming first place and overbought. Normally, Monday should transition from consensus to divergence, making it unsuitable for relaying… Unless it opens significantly lower than the board and drops to +0% or underwater, and is picked up by outside buyers, with a small coal chemical first board assisting, there might be a return seal; otherwise…

The PK of the two-board echelon will be a crucial battleground next Monday. Personally, I will look at Jinko vs Guangxi, focusing on which main force comes prepared… To put it simply, we will see which main force during bidding is likely to create a one-word board tool, such as whether Monday’s bidding will see a one-word board starting with Jinko or Guangxi. Then on Tuesday, the winners will continue to PK…

In summary, there are still opportunities for rebounds next week, but expectations shouldn’t be too high because rebound varieties generally can’t withstand significant trials; once the rebound ends, it’s often a mess…

Everyone should manage their trading rhythm according to their own personality and model…

(All of the above are personal subjective thoughts and may not be correct; please consider rationally and think independently… Different opinions can be discussed in the comments section.)