Jinyutang: The bullish outlook on gold has reignited hope. For short-term trading, consider going long first, then short.

On March 24, gold prices experienced a two-tier reversal on Monday. In the morning, the gold price opened under pressure and at one point plummeted nearly 8%, hitting a new low since December of last year. This was mainly due to the ongoing expansion of the U.S.-Iran conflict, which affected some energy and infrastructure, subsequently driving oil prices higher and exacerbating global inflationary pressures. This situation forced the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period, which continued to support the rise of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, leading to sustained pressure on gold prices yesterday. However, shortly after, Trump suddenly stated that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in productive dialogue over the past two days, delaying strikes on Iranian energy and infrastructure for five days, and mentioned that the dialogue would continue throughout the week. As a result, this statement directly caused oil prices to plummet from their highs, temporarily alleviating the Federal Reserve’s inflation concerns and leading to a sharp drop in both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn caused gold prices to rebound and recover all of their losses for the day at one point. Looking ahead at market volatility, if the situation in Iran genuinely starts to cool down, oil prices will continue to decline and begin to effectively support a rebound in gold.

From a technical standpoint, looking at the daily chart of gold, it rebounded after testing lows on Monday. Currently, the primary support for gold can temporarily be focused on the key level of 4300, where gold faced resistance and saw a shift between bulls and bears, followed by the support at the previous low points of 4250-4280 before the rise last night. The key resistance above gold can be observed at the lower band of the Bollinger Band on the daily chart at the opening today at the level of 4450. If there is a sustained short-term rebound today, further resistance can be seen at the previous rebound highs of 4510-4530. If prices manage to stabilize here, it will continue to alleviate short-term downward pressure, and further rebound potential can be focused on the levels of 4600-4680. Currently, the 5-day moving average and MACD indicator show a death cross downward, but the KDJ indicator has begun to form a golden cross, and the RSI indicator has turned up after a death cross, indicating that the technical outlook for gold shows a certain demand for rebound correction after a continuous decline, but further confirmation of the market trend is needed.

Today’s analysis of gold trading strategy: Short-term operations are temporarily advised to be approached with a range-bound strategy. Support for buying on the downside can focus on the levels of 4300-4280. The pressure above can temporarily focus on the levels of 4510 and 4530, with particular attention on whether the market will further rebound and stabilize above the 4500 level, subsequently extending to the 4600 level.

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Editor: Chen Ping