Shanghai Composite leads the way, while the ChiNext Board struggles to hold up. Someone will rebound next week! 【Next Week Outlook 2026-3-20】

Source: Lao Ding is a businessman

The situation of the war has been fermenting, and funds around the world are worried, making this week’s markets look bad.

Panic sentiment has clearly emerged! It happened today.

Although the ChiNext has not changed much, the Shanghai Composite is performing poorly.

Currently, in the mainland market, the CSI 300 and STAR Market are leading the decline. Although it seems that it is not easy to fall further now, it is also uncertain where the bottom is. Next week, the STAR Market and CSI 300 will definitely rebound, but before the rebound, it must first stabilize. Currently, I don’t see any stabilization; it should be around early next week.

Should the market now be viewed with a bull market mentality? Or a bear market mentality?

If viewing it with a bull market mentality, given the current turmoil in the world, one should actually look for low points and wait for valuations to recover, such as in Hong Kong stocks.

If viewing it with a bear market mentality, from the perspective of the overall market, some markets now need to temporarily avoid risks, such as A-shares and U.S. stocks.

For me this week, the only black swan was the unexpected drop after Ma Huateng’s earnings report was released. Under the current valuation, it has already risen, and then after the earnings report, the price returned to around 500. Currently, it’s unclear whether there will be funds to stabilize it; this is crucial.

The expectation now is that in the next three trading days, we will be able to see if it stabilizes. If it stabilizes, things will be good going forward. If it does not stabilize, it may enter a new platform, with strong support at 480–470. However, compared to now, 500 is still a critical point that must not be broken. If it breaks, it will move to the next platform for stabilization.

The A-share market is currently experiencing structural changes. Recently, the stocks that have risen are mainly banks, CATL, BYD, Moutai, and similar weighted stocks. There are currently no trend-based opportunities in industry sectors; it’s purely an index pull.

However, many sectors have already dropped to a certain low point, but like Hong Kong, there has not been a definitive bottom.

If the market can improve, the environment needs to be sufficiently stable. Previously, stable policies and a stable macroeconomic environment could lead to speculation even without earnings.

Now the environment is not stable enough, so those with speculative expectations have also seen a lack of participation from funds.

Currently, the core concern of the world is whether the oil crisis will lead to a significant global economic downturn. Oil prices have been hovering around 100 dollars, which has raised concerns about the economy and resulted in a global market correction.

In addition, the fear index has not yet dropped. The fear index rises and falls at different times, serving as a barometer for global economic and capital market expectations. Only when the fear index drops can the global market truly rebound. From the current brief situation, it seems that there may be some improvement next week.

Overall, falling oil prices, a declining fear index, and a rebound in global capital markets are the main points for next week!

Hong Kong Stock Market

The Hong Kong market has not changed; it has not fully exited this bottom range. It will take time to move out of the bottom range. We want to see some obvious improvements soon. If there is a rebound next week, it will only be a rebound; it is not yet time for Hong Kong to reverse and surge.

Last week we mentioned that observing Hong Kong at this time, even if it remains flat this month, is normal due to a poor environment.

Including U.S. stocks, the Dow Jones is also declining, and the drop is quite obvious. The reasons for all these phenomena are what we just mentioned; changes may occur next week, but whether it is a rebound or a surge, the probability of a rebound is slightly higher.

U.S. Stock Market

Currently, the U.S. stock market only has oil in an upward trend, which may not change for a while. Even if oil prices drop, they will not return to the previous 60, and oil companies will still benefit.

Besides oil, other tech stocks are generally flat or adjusting, and they are still continuing this way.

Last week we said that for U.S. stocks, one should not be too optimistic; temporarily, no one is showing any direction. Besides oil, there are no trending stocks, and there are almost no opportunities. However, after a week of adjustment, we feel that a rebound may be coming soon.

Pay attention to the bank stocks here; do not let the rise in oil lead to any risks for the economy, resulting in impacts on the financial system. Currently, there are no major issues.

As for industrial products, there is no point in discussing them; nothing has changed. Coking coal, coke, rebar, and such seem to have no connection to the world.

Gold has plummeted this week and is not finished yet. At this critical moment of war, there has not been a continued rise, indicating a lack of strength, and funds are fleeing severely. This situation may continue for a while.

Recently, I have been preparing to look at historical data from past oil crisis periods. This might deepen my understanding of the current situation. Is this currently an oil crisis? What impacts would occur if it either happens or does not happen? How high is the correlation with asset price fluctuations and timing?

Once I have conclusions, I will adjust my actions and viewpoints.

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