Trump always acts on weekends, and Wall Street no longer dares to hold positions over the weekend.

Trump often takes advantage of the weekend to release major updates, forcing Wall Street to readjust.

Last Saturday, Trump announced that Iran must reach an agreement within 48 hours, or face a series of devastating attacks on utilities and other infrastructure. However, by Monday, Trump canceled this plan, stating that strikes on energy facilities would be paused for five days. Following the announcement, Brent crude oil fell by more than 14% on Monday.

(Monday saw Brent crude oil futures plunge 14% at one point)

By Thursday, Trump again announced, after the U.S. stock market closed, that the deadline would be extended to April 6. On that day, spot oil prices briefly turned from gains to losses, and risk assets rebounded at one point, but the market seemed to be increasingly “immune” to Trump’s verbal interventions, as asset prices returned to their intraday trend direction.

On Friday, Wall Street Journal mentioned that after the situation escalated further, U.S. oil recovered all of its declines for the week, while U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 10% from this year’s high, entering correction territory alongside the Nasdaq.

Trump’s series of actions during market closures has significantly impacted market trading behavior. Traders in stocks, fixed income, and commodities are generally reluctant to hold large positions before the weekend to avoid potential volatility at Monday’s opening.

Kathy Jones, Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab, stated this week:

Entering the weekend with any size position could lead to a very tough Monday morning.

Weekend Moves Have Become a Fixed Pattern

Summarizing Trump’s actions over the past period, he prefers to take significant actions on Saturdays.

The airstrikes against Iran last June, the forced control of Venezuelan President Maduro earlier this year, and the latest military actions against Iran all occurred on Saturdays or throughout the weekend, while major market trading, including foreign exchange markets, is typically closed during weekends.

White House spokesperson Kush Desai denied in an email statement that the timing of military actions is correlated with market closures. He stated:

The idea that the timing of these military actions is determined by stock market hours rather than by intelligence recommendations and the timing most conducive to mission success is utterly ridiculous; only someone who has never planned a child’s birthday party would believe that.

Reports also cite an unnamed White House official claiming that so many significant moments falling on the weekend is purely coincidental.

However, Trump’s penchant for dramatic actions and his past tendency to act outside of market trading hours have reshaped the interaction dynamics between Wall Street and Washington.

As the reality of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz becomes increasingly severe, his ability to soothe the market with optimistic remarks is gradually diminishing. Even if Trump announces a 10-day pause in military actions, it cannot guarantee that this promise will be maintained.

Market Pressure Index Hits New High Since Trump Took Office

An analytical framework constructed by Deutsche Bank strategists shows that Trump tends to make the most impactful decisions when market pressure is at its peak.

The bank’s “Pressure Index” weighs four indicators: the performance of the S&P 500, U.S. Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and Trump’s approval ratings.

Data shows that the index peaked significantly when Trump announced the postponement of “reciprocal tariffs” last spring, clarified his intention not to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell last summer, and indicated earlier this year that there would be no military threat to seize Greenland.

Currently, the index has risen to its highest level since Trump took office in January 2025.

At the same time, there is evidence that Trump’s weekend actions do indeed have a significant impact on Monday’s opening.

For example, the frequency of significant gaps between the opening price on Monday and the closing price on the preceding Friday for the EUR/USD currency pair and the S&P 500 index is increasing, leaving investors with little time to quickly close out losing positions.

Escalation Risks Should Not Be Underestimated

Despite this, the market still has no definitive conclusion about what this pause in action truly means.

Wolfe Research analyst Tobin Marcus dubbed Trump’s latest moves as “Schrodinger’s TACO,” warning in a Monday report that with Trump increasing the deployment of Marines to the region, the possibility of seizing Iran’s key oil export hub, Khark Island, is rising, and the risk of escalation remains high.

Marcus wrote:

Once this force arrives, Trump will face a choice: retreat, escalate, or muddle through. We believe this decision will not be easy, but we think investors must take the possibility of escalation seriously.

Trump continues to send ambiguous signals regarding the situation in the Middle East. Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman stated in the media:

This may just be a delaying tactic before we have our troops in place, but if that’s the case, the U.S. will face a protracted siege, and the president won’t be able to manipulate the market every Saturday and Monday morning.

Josh Lipsky, Director of the International Economics Program at the Atlantic Council, takes a more cautious stance. He stated:

I believe the market, and all of us, should expect increased volatility in future weekends.

But Josh Lipsky also warned against overinterpreting the regularity of these signals.

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        The market carries risks, and investments should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this information is at one's own risk.