On March 20th, pig prices fell below the 5 yuan mark. 22 provinces entered the 4 yuan range. A quick overview of the national livestock, poultry, egg, and feed market trends.

The domestic hog market remains sluggish. On March 20, the national average price of out-of-sows hogs (external three-way hybrids) fell to 10.26 yuan per kilogram, down 0.05 yuan from the previous day, a decline of 0.93%. After many years, it once again fell below the 5 yuan per jin threshold. According to monitoring data, among the 27 provinces nationwide that day, hog prices fell in more than 80% of regions. The Central China and Northeast production areas saw a comprehensive decline across the board, while in places such as Hainan and Gansu the lowest prices were only 4.8 yuan per jin. In contrast, only partial regions such as Guangdong and Shanghai kept prices in the 5.3-5.6 yuan per jin range. Industry analysis holds that this round of sharp hog price declines is mainly driven by dual pressures: a period of relatively loose hog supply and weak terminal consumption, with prominent supply-demand imbalance.

In response to the persistently weak hog prices, relevant departments have taken action. It is reported that the competent authority recently convened a symposium with leading domestic hog companies, asking them to report their full-year slaughtering/export quotas and to advance production capacity reduction. Industry insiders say that losses at the breeding end are continuing to worsen, and for some companies the loss per hog exceeds 300 yuan; the pace of capacity reduction and de-stocking is expected to accelerate. At the same time, pressure from feed costs has become even more prominent. Several feed companies raised pig feed prices starting March 20: weaned piglet feed and dairy piglet feed increased by 100 yuan per ton, making the breeding cost burden clearly heavy.

The piglet market is also not optimistic. On that day, the national weighted average price of out-of-sows piglets (external three-way hybrids) was 27.49 yuan per kilogram, down 0.74% from the previous day. Market sentiment is cautious, and the willingness to restock is sluggish. By region, prices in the Northeast production area are at the bottom. The average piglet prices in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang were 26.69 yuan per kilogram, 26.65 yuan per kilogram, and 26.50 yuan per kilogram, respectively. In South China, Guangdong and Guangxi have relatively higher averages, but Guangxi’s decline was 1.12%, the largest drop for the day. Analysts believe that piglet weakness is mainly due to being dragged down by the terminal hog market, together with a period of relatively loose supply after the holidays; in the short term, prices are still expected to operate under pressure.

The poultry market shows a differentiated pattern. Broiler chick prices (white-feathered chicks) remain stable. In major producing areas, large-farm quotations are 3.4-3.9 yuan per bird, while medium and small farms are 3.1-3.3 yuan per bird. However, high feed costs have increased reticence among smallholders to restock, and in some places there have been order cancellations. Prices in front of broiler houses for white-feathered chickens are stable. In major producing areas such as Shandong and Hebei, the average is 3.45-3.50 yuan per jin, while in Liaoning some regions are higher at 3.75-3.80 yuan per jin. The price of culled chickens is steady-to-weaker. In the major producing areas nationwide, the average is 4.6-4.8 yuan per jin. In Henan’s high-price area, red chickens are approaching 5.0 yuan per jin. In the Southwest, low-priced powder-feather chickens are only 3.4-3.7 yuan per jin.

The egg market is relatively stable. In major producing areas, quotes edged up to 3.20-3.35 yuan per jin, up 0.05-0.10 yuan per jin from yesterday. In the futures market, the lead contract quote for eggs was 3375 yuan per 500kg, down slightly by 0.18%. Regionally, major producing areas in the North such as Shandong, Henan, and Hebei showed prominent upward momentum, while in main sales regions such as Beijing and Shanghai, quotes were steady. Market analysis says that current high feed costs support the bottom of egg prices; combined with a relatively slow pace of culling old hens, there is no tightness pressure on the supply side in the short term, and prices are expected to maintain a narrow-ranging volatility pattern.

The cattle and sheep market is operating steady-to-strong. In major producing areas, the mainstream price of fattening beef cattle is 18.4-20.2 yuan per jin. North China production areas lead on quotes. In the Northeast, live cattle are 18.0-18.8 yuan per jin, with quality cattle sources selling well. The average price of fattening sheep is 12.5-14.0 yuan per jin. In Anhui and Jiangsu production areas, quotes are relatively firm. The national average price of mutton is 36.78 yuan per jin, with a slight month-over-month decline. Inner Mongolia’s purchase price for fattening sheep was lowered slightly; more big ewes’ lambs are being sold at market, but market movement is somewhat slower. Industry information indicates that tight slaughter-ready cattle sources and high feed costs together support cattle prices, and breeders’ sentiment to hold and sell less is strong.

Fluctuations in the feedstuff raw materials market are intensifying. Soybean meal spot quotes are mainly stable. The average price of soy meal among major domestic oil mills nationwide is 3170-3370 yuan per ton, and coastal port quotes are on the high side. In the futures market, the September soybean meal contract recorded a “four consecutive bullish sessions” pattern, with the price center lifting to above 2900. Analysts believe that in the short term, soybean meal prices are affected by three factors: the trend in U.S. soybeans, the domestic oil mills’ operating rates, and breeding demand. Therefore, soybean meal prices are expected to remain in a high-level sideways-to-volatile range. The corn market, meanwhile, shows regional differentiation: in some areas prices adjust slightly, and trading sentiment is cautious.