[US Stock Market Close] Iran claims nuclear facility attacked; fears of escalation grow. Dow drops 793 points, oil prices rise again, the US dollar surpasses 100.

U.S. President Trump announced a further 10-day extension to strike Iranian power plants, which did not ease market concerns; instead, worries that prolonged conflict could affect oil supply and exacerbate global economic impacts have emerged, with attention on whether central banks worldwide may enter a rate hike cycle.

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Iran claimed that its nuclear facilities were attacked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including a nuclear facility with a heavy water reactor and a production plant for uranium processing materials known as “yellowcake.” The two largest steel mills in Iran were also hit, and Iranian officials stated they were considering withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty; the conflict is likely to escalate, U.S. long-term bond yields rose, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 900 points on Friday.

The Dow closed at 45,166 points, down 793 points, the S&P 500 fell 1.67%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.15%. Meta and Amazon shares fell 4%, and Tesla dropped 2.8%.

Spot gold prices rebounded by as much as 4.09%, closing at $4,554.93. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was reported at 4.433%, marking an over 8-month high; the yield on 20-year Treasuries even surpassed 5%, the first time since July of last year.

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Oil prices initially fell before rebounding, with New York crude oil dropping 2.54% before closing up 5.46% at $99.64, while Brent crude oil rose 4.22% to close at $112.57.

Funds continued to flow into the dollar as a safe haven, with the U.S. dollar index breaking above 100. LGT Royal Bank (Asia) indicated a neutral stance on the dollar at the tactical level, considering that the U.S., as the world’s largest net energy exporter, enjoys more favorable trade conditions amid the current energy crisis, while also reflecting the dollar’s defensive asset status during market volatility. Given the current inflationary situation, we believe the Federal Reserve has limited room for rate cuts compared to the past, with a maximum of one cut expected in 2026, down from the previously anticipated one to two cuts.

The bank anticipates that within 6 to 12 months, assuming energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to normal, the market will gradually resume the trend of diversifying away from the dollar, exerting mild downward pressure on the dollar and leading to a weakening against some major currencies. This outlook reflects ongoing uncertainty in the market regarding U.S. policy and fiscal sustainability, while other economies such as Australia and China show relatively improved prospects. However, the upward risk for the dollar remains, and the longer the disruption in energy supply lasts, the more pronounced that risk becomes.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Islamic Council, stated on social media on Friday that the Non-Proliferation Treaty has not brought Iran any substantial benefits. Rezaei further pointed out that IAEA Director General Grossi claimed that the only way to eliminate Iran’s nuclear program is through nuclear bombing, which he described as provocative and dangerous.

Pierre Wunsch, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council and also the Governor of the National Bank of Belgium, stated that if the conflict in Iran is not resolved by June, the ECB may have to take action to raise interest rates.

Pierre Wunsch, a member of the ECB’s Governing Council, stated that if the conflict in Iran is not resolved by June, the ECB may have to take action to raise interest rates.

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Market Trend:

【18:29】Trump extends the ultimatum deadline by 10 days, Dow futures down 67 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%, U.S. dollar and U.S. long bond yields both rise.

【15:11】Dow futures up 177 points, at 46,407 points, S&P futures up 29 points, at 6,554 points, Nasdaq futures up 111 points or 0.5%, at 23,905 points.

【15:11】Oil prices develop mixed, with New York crude down 0.3%, at $94.24, and Brent crude up nearly 0.1%, at $108.11. Gold prices rose over 1%, with New York futures at $4,487, up 1.8%, and spot gold at $4,451, up 1.7%.

【13:25】【AI + Memory】Google announces new technology TurboQuant, dispersing storage, chip stocks; Morgan Stanley calls it “another DeepSeek moment”; analysts believe it favors cloud service giants.

【11:26】【U.S. Dollar Bills】Trump’s signature will appear on the new version of U.S. bills, breaking a 165-year tradition of U.S. presidents.

【11:15】【Yen Trend】Yen at 4.91 to HKD; Japanese Finance Minister Kato hints at intervention in the currency market.

【10:56】【AAPL】Apple rarely grants bonuses to iPhone hardware designers to prevent employees from being poached by OpenAI and others.

【10:49】【U.S. Interest Rates】Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson: The impact of rising energy prices on inflation remains limited; the current interest rate stance is appropriate.

【10:24】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI’s advertising revenue in the U.S. has exceeded $100 million in six weeks; expansion to more countries is expected in the coming weeks.

【10:07】【Gold Price Trend】Gold prices recover some ground as Trump delays the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran; the Turkish central bank sells over $8 billion in gold, increasing downward pressure on gold prices.

【10:06】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Extends negotiation deadline to April 6, saying, “The Iranian representatives politely requested seven days, I gave ten days.” (Continuously updating)

【09:59】【NFLX】Netflix raises the monthly fee for all U.S. subscribers, with the increase of over 12%.

【09:28】【New IPO】Anthropic reportedly considers going public as early as October, potentially raising over $60 billion.

【08:47】【New IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to hold an investor briefing in April, intending to allocate up to 30% of the IPO quota to retail investors.

【08:16】【AI + Siri】Apple’s Siri undergoes a “major overhaul”; reports suggest plans to open Siri to external AI assistants.

$1 or less for March 26 U.S. stock market situation====

Thursday: Trump extends the strike on Iranian power plants by 10 days; oil price roller coaster

U.S. President Trump posted on social media platform Truth Social, stating, “At the request of the Iranian government, please let this statement represent my suspension of the destruction of the power plants for 10 days until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing, and despite the fake news media and others spreading contradictory false statements, discussions are progressing very smoothly.”

Brent crude oil once evaporated 7% of its gains; however, as the message still indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked for an additional 10 days, oil prices suddenly jumped 5% back up to $107.

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Inflation concerns persist, with U.S. 10-year bond yields rising to 4.412%, up 0.079%, and the U.S. dollar index up 0.3%, at 99.93.

The Dow closed down 469 points, at 45,960 points, the S&P down 1.7%, at 6,477 points, and the Nasdaq down 2.4%, at 21,408 points.

Trump stated at a cabinet meeting that the U.S. would continue to strike Iran until a conflict-ending agreement is reached. He confirmed that the U.S. still plans for the Iranian war to last only four to six weeks.

Trump revealed that the “gift” sent by the Iranian negotiating representatives was permission for at least eight oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Trump stated that the passage of these vessels through the strait is a signal to the U.S., showing that the negotiating representatives are indicating “we are genuine and reliable.” Trump said these oil tankers might fly the flag of Pakistan. He continued, saying, “At that time, I said, ‘Well, I think we are dealing with the right people.’ In fact, they later apologized for some of the things they said.” The White House declined to provide further details regarding the oil tankers.

Earlier, Trump posted on Truth Social, stating that the Iranian negotiating representatives were quite unusual and somewhat “strange.” On one hand, they “plead” for the U.S. to reach an agreement, which he felt was fair. However, they publicly stated they were only considering the U.S. proposal. He bluntly called it a big mistake and urged Iran to take it seriously soon, or it would be too late, and the consequences would be dire!

He later stated in an interview that the Iran issue would be resolved quickly, not taking long, and energy prices would fall, potentially even to lower levels. He currently is unsure if he is willing to reach an agreement with Iran, claiming they should have reached an agreement four weeks ago, missing that opportunity. He also mentioned that the U.S. had completely destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, as well as about 90% of its missiles and missile launchers, and asserted that Iran should be using nuclear weapons against Israel and other countries in the region, as well as the U.S.

The Iranian Tasnim news agency reported that Iran formally responded to the U.S. proposed 15-point ceasefire agreement on Wednesday night (25th) and is awaiting a response from the other side. In its response, Iran stated that enemy aggression and terrorism must end, objective conditions must be created to ensure that war does not recur, war reparations must be guaranteed and resolved, and the end of the war must be executed across all fronts against all resistance organizations involved in this conflict throughout the region.

Egypt confirmed its involvement in mediating between the U.S. and Iran. Egyptian Foreign Minister Abdelatty stated that Egypt, along with Turkey and Pakistan, is assisting in conveying messages between the U.S. and Iran and participating in broader mediation efforts to de-escalate the regional situation.

Schroeder indicated that there are multiple possible developments regarding the Iran conflict, making it difficult to see the economic and financial market outlook: if oil prices rise above $120 per barrel or fall below $90, the global economy will present a starkly different picture. Compared to February, the probabilities of both extreme scenarios have increased, while the originally moderate and dovish “economic stability” scenario has seen a corresponding decrease in its occurrence.

The bank stated that, given the inflationary pressure from oil price shocks, it has raised the probability of an “overheating” scenario; however, this assessment still remains lower than the market-implied probabilities. Central banks worldwide will closely monitor the possibility of “second-round impacts,” such as rising medium-term inflation expectations, wage increases, and supply chain disruptions.

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Market Trend:

【23:00】Trump: The Iran issue will be resolved quickly, and energy prices will fall; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 75 points, oil prices up 4%.

【21:30】Trump urges Iranian negotiating representatives to take it seriously soon; Egypt confirms participation in mediation; Dow down 218 points, oil prices up 4%.

【18:15】Dow futures down 317 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%; oil prices up 4%, gold prices fall after two consecutive days of gains.

【14:27】Dow futures down 190 points, at 46,521 points; S&P futures down 29 points, at 6,611 points; Nasdaq futures down 126 points or 0.5%, at 24,241 points.

【14:27】Oil prices up 2%, with New York crude at $92.41, up 2.3%; Brent crude at $104.68, up 2.4%. Gold prices fall after two days of gains, with New York futures down 3%, at $4,446; spot gold down 1.7%, at $4,429.

【14:19】【Private Equity】Former Goldman Sachs CEO warns: The private equity market hides a “fire” crisis; not selling assets could trigger massive writedowns.

【13:39】【U.S. Stock Analysis】Dow up 300 points; analysis: The current rebound is speculation about a ceasefire, expecting U.S.-Iran conflict to be hard to end shortly, oil prices will rise again.

【11:58】【Iran Crisis】BlackRock president warns investors are underestimating the risks of the Iran war; even if “war is announced to have ended tomorrow,” oil prices could still soar to $150.

【11:43】【AI + Meta】AI investment is massive; Meta initiates a new round of layoffs, involving hundreds of people.

【10:47】【Dollar Trend】Morgan Stanley: The rise in the dollar may be a “bull trap”; the market underestimates the negative impact of the Iran war on the U.S. economy; expects the Fed to cut rates twice this year.

【10:15】【U.S. Rate Cuts】Fed Governor Milan raises rate expectations by 0.5 percentage points, stating it is not due to oil prices and Iran factors.

【09:28】【Gold Price Trend】Gold prices stabilize after two days of gains; spot gold remains steady.

【08:47】【Oil Price Trend】U.S. reportedly evaluating the impact of oil prices rising to $200 in extreme scenarios; the White House denies this.

【08:29】【Iran Crisis】Citrini founder: The Fed will “ignore” the impact of oil prices, do not give up on rate cut expectations; previously published an AI “doomsday report” that shocked the market.

【08:04】【Xi-Trump Meeting】The White House officially announces Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15, stating Xi Jinping will also visit Washington later this year.

【07:27】【Iran Crisis】No sign of Iran “sending gifts”; White House’s Leavitt: If Iran refuses to accept reality, Trump will intensify strikes. (Continuously updating)

$1 or less for March 25 U.S. stock market situation====

Wednesday: Dow up 305 points; Iran claims to have shot down U.S. F-18 fighter jets; White House: Trump to visit China in mid-May.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Wednesday that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing from May 14 to 15; markets are optimistic that this itinerary signifies the U.S. expects the Middle East war to end in mid-May, leading to a significant rebound in U.S. stocks on Wednesday.

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The Dow’s increase peaked at 594 points, but due to ongoing uncertainty in the war negotiations, the Dow closed up only 305 points at 46,429 points; the S&P rose 0.54%, the Nasdaq up 0.77%, reflecting a 1.86% rise in the Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese concept stocks.

In focus stocks, Tesla Optimus officially released a video and revealed details related to Optimus, including development environment, reduction gearbox, and dexterous hand designs. Tesla Optimus stated that Optimus will fundamentally change the economic landscape of labor and manufacturing. Musk stated that production for Optimus 3 is expected to start this summer, with hopes of achieving mass production by 2027. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) rose 0.8%.

Amazon and Nvidia shares rose 2%, while British chip design company ARM launched its own chip for the first time, boosting ADR stocks by 16.4%.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated on Wednesday that its air defense forces shot down a U.S. F-18 fighter jet in its southeastern airspace that afternoon, with the fighter jet crashing into the Indian Ocean.

The Iranian Fars News Agency reported on Wednesday (25th) that Iran has stated it will reject the U.S. ceasefire proposal and continue to attack Israel and Gulf Arab countries, claiming that Trump’s approach of starting indirect negotiations at this stage of the conflict lacks logic and is unfeasible. They stated that Iran is focused on achieving its goals, and only when these goals are met can the war potentially end, not just with a ceasefire. This news helped control the downward trend of oil prices, with New York crude oil falling as much as 6.38%, closing at $90.32, still down 2.2%; Brent crude oil once dropped 7% to $97.15, closing at $102.22, down 2.2%.

Iranian state media Press TV reported that the Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked again at 9 p.m. local time on Tuesday. The plant had previously been attacked in mid-March, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that the reactor itself was not damaged.

Iran reiterated that non-hostile vessels can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz as long as they coordinate. Marine Traffic data shows that from Monday (23rd) until now, nine vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Spot gold prices rose as much as 2.83%, reaching $4,602.34; Bitcoin surged 2.79% to $72,013.

Memory stocks fell sharply, with Micron (NASDAQ: MU) down 3.4% and Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) down 3.5%. This was mainly affected by news that South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix plans to list in the U.S.

Foreign media reported that SK Hynix has submitted confidential filing materials to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and plans to issue American Depository Receipts (ADR) within the year. A spokesperson for SK Hynix responded that multiple measures to enhance shareholder value, including issuing ADRs, are currently under review, but no final decision has been made yet.

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Market Trend:

【22:40】Dow up 371 points.

【21:30】Brent crude down 5%, falling below the $100 mark; Dow up 580 points, Nasdaq up 1.2%; Micron down 6%.

【17:55】Iran war negotiations “warm winds”; Dow futures up 365 points, Nasdaq futures up 1%; Brent crude down 4%, falling below the $100 mark.

【14:54】Dow futures up 339 points, at 46,754 points; S&P futures up 42 points, at 6,648 points; Nasdaq futures up 160 points or 0.7%, at 24,374 points.

【14:54】New York crude down 3.4%, at $89.2; Brent crude down 4%, at $100.3. New York gold futures up 3.3%, at $4,578; spot gold up 1.7%, at $4,549.

【13:57】【AI + Sora】OpenAI suddenly halts Sora AI video generation, shocking the market; Disney was informed only 30 minutes after the project meeting, while OpenAI had promoted Sora the day before.

【13:52】【AI + IPO】SK Hynix reportedly plans to list in the U.S. within the year; it has submitted a filing to the SEC, potentially raising up to $10 billion.

【13:32】【U.S. Stock Analysis】U.S. proposes ceasefire to Iran; Dow futures rise over 300 points; analysis: Trump’s TACO, future market still needs to pay attention to two major issues.

【11:01】【Iran Situation】JPMorgan’s Dimon: Long-term conflict could lead to lasting peace in the Middle East as regional powers’ interests align.

【10:48】【U.S.-China Relations】China Investment Corporation reportedly considering reallocation to U.S. asset management firms.

【10:26】【AI + AAPL】Is Siri no longer just a voice assistant? Apple upgrades Siri to a chat robot, adding “Ask Siri” new feature, expected to debut at June’s WWDC.

【10:00】【Yen Trend】Yen at 4.93 to HKD; Japanese central bank meeting minutes: Some members suggest timely rate hikes to counter rising inflation.

【09:58】【U.S. Rate Cuts】Fed Governor Barr: Rates may need to remain “unchanged for a while”; Middle East situation poses “additional risks.”

【09:39】【Gold Price Trend】Gold prices end nine consecutive falls! Spot gold rises above $4,500; gold price in Hong Kong rises by $1,800 in one day.

【08:54】【ARM + Chips】Arm rises 8% after hours, will sell its own chips for the first time; expected to generate about $15 billion in annual revenue within five years; Meta is the first major customer.

【08:26】【New IPO】SpaceX reportedly plans to submit an IPO application as early as this week, potentially raising over $75 billion.

【08:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Iran will send a “big gift” today; Rubio and Vance involved in negotiations; the premise is “they must never have nuclear weapons.” (Continuously updating)

【08:01】【AI + AMZN】Software stocks hit again; Amazon reportedly developing new AI agents to replace some departmental functions.

$1 or less for March 24 U.S. stock market situation====

Tuesday: U.S. reportedly seeks negotiations with Iran on Thursday; Brent oil stabilizes, Dow’s decline narrows.

Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. is contacting Iran regarding a ceasefire plan, with Axios reporting that the U.S. and mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level talks on Thursday, but they are still waiting for Tehran’s response.

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Iranian officials denied Trump’s claims about behind-the-scenes negotiations, but they confirmed that the U.S. has sent messages and proposals.

Oil prices were cautious, with Brent crude up 0.2%, closing at $100.17, and New York crude up 4.8%, closing at $92.35.

Gold prices rebounded, with spot gold up 1.6%, closing at $4,475.51; spot silver prices remained relatively unchanged, closing at $71.2194.

The U.S. dollar index rose 0.3%, at 99.23, while U.S. 10-year bond yields remained high at 4.36%.

U.S. stocks were soft, with the Dow falling as much as 438 points to a low of 45,769 points, closing down 84 points at 46,124 points; the S&P fell 0.4%, closing at 6,556 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%, closing at 21,761 points.

Trump has postponed the ultimatum by 5 days, but sporadic attacks continue between Israel and Iran. The Prime Minister of Pakistan has expressed willingness to host U.S.-Iran talks to resolve the ongoing conflict.

Market news indicates that Iran has begun charging tolls to some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with fees being collected on a per-voyage basis, with the maximum per trip reaching $2 million, effectively establishing an informal “toll” in this waterway. It is reported that some vessels have already paid the relevant fees, but the specific payment mechanism remains unclear, including what currency is used.

The Iranian Tasnim news agency reported on Tuesday that a vessel flying the Thai flag successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz after close coordination with Iranian authorities.

According to Israeli media Ynet citing local officials, the U.S. has set April 9 as the target date to end the war with Iran, indicating that there are more than half a month for fighting and negotiations, with Washington striving to end hostilities by the end of April.

Reports suggest that if the conflict ends as scheduled around April 9, Trump plans to visit the area around Israel’s Independence Day on May 14. Currently, countries like Pakistan are actively mediating, attempting to arrange indirect communication between the U.S. and Iran, possibly for preliminary contact in Pakistan this week, but both sides have not formally confirmed this.

Additionally, according to reports from Russian media cited by CCTV, Omani journalist and international relations researcher Salem Al-Jahuri confirmed on the BBC Arabic channel that the U.S. is pressuring Gulf states, forcing them to pay huge costs for U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict.

Reports mention that Trump is demanding huge “protection fees” from Arab allies, either to pay $50 trillion (about 39 trillion HKD) to continue the war or to pay $25 trillion (about 19.5 trillion HKD) to end the war, claiming this is compensation for “achieved results.”

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Market Trend:

【22:50】Iran reportedly charging “tolls” to merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz; Dow down 88 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil prices rebound 3%.

【21:30】Pakistan ready to host U.S.-Iran talks; Dow down 338 points, Nasdaq down 0.6%; oil prices rebound 4%.

【18:00】【Iran Crisis】Is there hope for U.S.-Iran war? Reports that Trump demands high protection fees: $25 trillion to end the war.

【16:00】【Iran Crisis】Reports that the U.S. has set April 9 as the “end date” for the war; Iran continues to deny this.

【14:00】Dow futures down 258 points, at 46,264 points; S&P futures down 38 points, at 6,596 points; Nasdaq futures down 150 points or 0.6%, at 24,258 points.

【14:00】Oil prices rebound, with New York crude at $91.6, up nearly 4%; Brent crude at $103.4, up 3.4%. Gold prices continue to soften, with New York gold down 0.9%, at $4,400; spot gold down 1.1%, at $4,357.

【14:00】【Iran Crisis】DBS: Gold prices likely to be constrained in the short term due to ongoing fluctuations from Middle East conflicts, maintaining a year-end target of $6,250.

【13:23】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI reportedly offering private equity firms attractive terms; 17.5% guaranteed return to compete for the enterprise AI market.

【13:08】【OnlyFans】OnlyFans billionaire owner Leonid Radvinsky has died of cancer at the age of 43.

【12:34】【Gold Price Trend】Gold prices remain soft after nine consecutive declines; gold prices in Hong Kong fall below $40,000.

【12:15】【Switch 2】Nintendo plans to cut production of the Switch 2 by about 33% this season; production cuts may continue until April.

【11:51】【Gold Price Trend】Gold prices fall over 20% from highs, entering a bear market; Morgan Stanley: funds flowing from safe-haven assets to equities, a positive signal for U.S. stocks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】High Minister Suga orders assessment of the supply chain for oil-related products to respond to the crisis; the finance ministry reportedly seeks market opinions on possible intervention in crude oil futures.

【10:36】【AI + Investment】BlackRock CEO: The AI wave may exacerbate wealth inequality; investors should hedge impacts through holding shares.

【08:37】【AI + OpenAI】OpenAI states in investor documents that reliance on Microsoft poses risks; what other risks exist?

【08:08】【Iran Crisis】Fed officials Daly: The U.S. economy faces at least two possible scenarios; the Fed needs to remain flexible to address risks.

【07:48】【AI + Apple】Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference WWDC26 will begin on June 8; expected to announce a series of AI features.

【06:32】【Iran Crisis】Iranian parliamentary speaker denies having negotiated with Trump; British destroyer “Dragon” arrives in the Mediterranean. (Continuously updating)

$1 or less for March 23 U.S. stock market situation====

Monday: Trump’s statements still questioned; Dow’s gains halved to 631 points, oil prices continue to fall by 10%.

U.S. President Trump claimed to have negotiated with Iran, delaying strikes against power plants, which stimulated oil prices to fall and stock markets to rebound. The Dow rose as much as 1,134 points, hitting a high of 46,712 points; the S&P rose as much as 2.2%, reaching a high of 6,651 points; the Nasdaq rose as much as 2.5%, hitting a high of 22,189 points. The close was less than the peak, with the Dow finishing up 631 points at 46,208 points, the S&P up 1.1% at 6,581 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.4% at 21,946 points.

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Oil prices fell as much as 14.1%, closing down 10%, with New York crude at $88.13 and Brent crude at $100.50. Spot gold prices fell as much as 7%, hitting a low of $4,099.18, closing down 1.9% at $4,407.18.

Macquarie Group’s global foreign exchange and interest rate strategist Thierry Wizman stated, “We are cautiously skeptical of the news about an impending ‘breakthrough’ this morning and tweets, believing that the war is unlikely to continue beyond April, as Iran’s threat may be diminished by then, but large-scale military action is also unlikely to conclude within this week.”

Trump stated on Truth Social that he had good progress in negotiations with Iran over the past two days and has instructed the Department of Defense to suspend all military strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, based on the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.

Trump later pointed out that both countries have reached multiple consensuses during negotiations and have discussed leadership choices in Iran, claiming Iran has agreed to abandon nuclear weapons. However, he also mentioned that should U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing actions would continue.

However, the Iranian Tasnim News Agency later quoted Iranian sources stating that the U.S. and Iran had not engaged in negotiations and that there were currently no talks. They also indicated that U.S. attacks continue, and the Strait of Hormuz would not return to a state prior to the conflict. Another agency, Mehr, also quoted Iranian Foreign Ministry sources indicating that Trump’s comments aimed to lower energy prices and buy time for military plans.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry later also stated that there are some initiatives to ease tensions, but Iran’s response is that the U.S. should be the dialogue partner, as the war was not initiated by Iran.

Trump later further responded, saying negotiations occurred on Sunday (22nd) night, emphasizing that Iran is eager to reach an agreement, admitting he did not know why Iranian media would refute his statements.

T. Rowe Price indicated that after the Iranian strike, gold prices initially experienced a typical safe-haven surge, but the momentum could not be sustained, as the market quickly reinterpreted the nature of the event. Investors did not view it as a sustained geopolitical shock, but rather as an inflation event driven by energy prices. This shift pushed up real interest rates, strengthened the dollar, and weakened market expectations for rate cuts, all of which were unfavorable for gold prices.

Gold had already accumulated considerable gains before the event, limiting the space for new safe-haven capital inflows. The outlook for gold prices is expected to be influenced by both macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In the short term, the direction of real interest rates and expected central bank policies will be crucial, while energy prices and the dollar’s movement should also be monitored. The bank still views gold as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trading tool. Structural demand from central banks, coupled with unclear policy prospects, provides some support for gold prices, even though short-term price movements may remain volatile.

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Market Trend:

【22:15】Trump: If U.S.-Iran talks break down, bombing actions will continue; Dow rebounds 890 points, oil prices drop by 10%.

【21:30】Trump postpones the ultimatum by 5 days, stating he is negotiating with Iran; Dow rebounds 744 points, oil prices drop 8%.

【20:10】Iran denies conducting negotiations; Dow futures’ increase narrows; oil prices drop 5%.

【19:10】Trump: Progress in negotiations with Iran; postpones ultimatum by 5 days; Dow futures turn up by 1,207 points, Nasdaq futures up 2.2%; oil prices drop sharply by 10%.

【14:13】Dow futures down 200 points, at 45,693 points; S&P futures down 37 points, at 6,521 points; Nasdaq futures down 167 points or 0.7%, at 23,934 points.

【14:13】New York crude up 0.8%, at $98.97; Brent crude up 0.6%, at $112.85.

【14:13】【Gold Price Trend】Spot gold prices drop below $4,300, erasing this year’s gains; gold prices in Hong Kong drop another $1,000, down by $10,000 from the high.

【13:25】【Oil Price Trend】Goldman Sachs warns that the oil market faces the “largest supply shock in history,” raising its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $85.

【13:15】【Iran Crisis】IAEA Director: Over 40 energy assets in the Middle East are “severely damaged”; the impact of the conflict is comparable to the sum of the two oil crises of the 1970s and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

【11:40】【Yen Trend】Yen at 4.9 to HKD; Japanese officials reiterate “export measures”: ready to take all necessary actions to respond to exchange rate fluctuations.

【11:21】【Iran Crisis】Korean and Japanese stock markets experience “Black Monday”; Korean stocks fall by 5%, triggering the sixth “Sidecar” mechanism of the year; Nikkei index previously dropped over 2,600 points.

【10:56】【AI + Chips】Musk: Terafab project will be established in Austin; Tesla and SpaceX will co-operate.

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Countdown for the ultimatum is 1 day; Trump and Iran threaten to attack civilian infrastructure; oil prices fluctuate. (Continuously updating)

【07:30】【External Weekly Outlook】Continue to closely monitor the Middle East conflict; pay attention to comments from Fed officials; U.S. March manufacturing PMI to be announced on Tuesday.

【07:30】The Iran conflict heats up, with U.S. President Trump stating on Friday to reporters, “I don’t want a ceasefire.” Energy prices fluctuate; at one point, the Dow’s decline widened to over 600 points; U.S. long bond yields reached a six-month high, with the market now estimating a 40% chance of a rate hike in September. The Dow closed down 443 points, at 45,577 points; the S&P down 1.51%, Nasdaq down 2.01%.

View U.S. stock market close:

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