Cui Dongshu: In January-February 2026, China's automotive industry revenue decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with an industry profit margin of 2.9%, still relatively low.

Cui Dongshu stated that from January to February 2026, China’s automobile production was 4.02 million units, down 10% year-on-year. The automobile industry’s revenue was 1,482.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year; costs were 1,314.7 billion yuan, an increase of 0.2%; profits stood at 43.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 30%; the profit margin for the automobile industry was 2.9%, which remains low compared to the average profit margin of 5.8% for downstream industrial enterprises.

In 2026, various regions are vigorously promoting the implementation of the “Two New” policies, effectively unleashing domestic demand vitality, but the improvement in the automobile industry’s performance is significantly lagging behind other consumer goods. From January to February 2026, the overall per vehicle revenue in the automobile industry’s supply chain was 369,000 yuan (with repeated calculations in the supply chain) an increase of 36,000 yuan, per vehicle costs increased by 35,000 yuan, per vehicle tax and fees increased by 4,000 yuan, and the gross profit per vehicle in the supply chain was 11,000 yuan, a decrease of 3,000 yuan.

In 2026, the state is implementing a more proactive macro policy, increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continuously expanding domestic demand, and optimizing supply, with overall market demand stabilizing and rising, achieving a good start. As the national anti-involution efforts continue, it is expected that the positive effects on improving industry profits will gradually materialize.

From the historical trend of sales profit margins, the automobile industry’s profit performance has already shown signs of fatigue in 2024, with a sales profit margin of only 4.3%, significantly down from historical normal levels; in 2025, the industry’s sales profit margin dropped to 4.1%. In January and February 2026, the industry sales profit margin further decreased to 2.9%, still at a historical low, and the pressure on profits continues to be prominent.

According to the national statistical bureau’s calculations, the overall unit cost growth pressure for industrial enterprises is high from January to February. The price of lithium carbonate has doubled, commodity prices are running high, and the cost pressure on raw materials in the midstream and downstream industries has increased. From January to February 2026, the overall per vehicle revenue in the automobile industry’s supply chain was 369,000 yuan (with repeated calculations in the supply chain) an increase of 36,000 yuan, per vehicle costs increased by 35,000 yuan, per vehicle tax and fees increased by 4,000 yuan, and the gross profit per vehicle in the supply chain was 11,000 yuan, a decrease of 3,000 yuan.

Automobile Industry Analysis

1. The scale of the automobile industry continues to expand

In 2022, automobile production reached 27.48 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 3%; production of new energy vehicles was 7.22 million units, growing by 98%, with a penetration rate of 26%; production of fuel vehicles was 20.26 million units, down 11%.

In 2023, automobile production was 30.11 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%; production of new energy vehicles was 9.44 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30%, with a penetration rate of 31%; production of fuel vehicles was 20.67 million units, an increase of 2%.

In 2024, automobile production reached 31.56 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5%; production of new energy vehicles was 13.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39%, with a penetration rate of 42%; production of fuel vehicles was 18.39 million units, down 11%.

In 2025, automobile production reached 34.78 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%; production of new energy vehicles was 16.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with a penetration rate of 48%; production of fuel vehicles was 18.25 million units, down 1%.

From January to February 2026, automobile production was 4.02 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; production of new energy vehicles was 160,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, with a penetration rate of 40%; production of fuel vehicles was 2.42 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

2. The automobile industry is under significant profit pressure

From January to February 2026, automobile production was 4.02 million units, down 10% year-on-year. The revenue for the automobile industry in January and February 2026 was 1,482.4 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year; costs were 1,314.7 billion yuan, an increase of 0.2%; profits were 43.5 billion yuan, down 30% year-on-year; the profit margin for the automobile industry was 2.9%, which remains low compared to the average profit margin of 5.8% for downstream industrial enterprises.

Recently, as the production scale of the auto market expands, PPI is rising, upstream lithium carbonate costs are increasing, and the issue of automakers not producing batteries is serious, leading to a sustainable decline in automaker profits.

Considering the downward trend in profit margins over the past few years, the recent decline in automobile industry profits remains significant. Due to the clear advantages of new energy policies supported by government policies, and the lack of battery production, mainstream automakers will continue to face increasing profit pressures. As the national anti-involution efforts continue, the positive effects on improving industry profits will gradually materialize.

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