Doomsday Doctor | Rubin: The chance of the U.S. escalating the Iran war has exceeded 50%

SighingCashier · 2026-03-27T20:20:08+00:00

Economist Rubin predicts that the United States will escalate its conflict with Iran to achieve victory rather than retreat. He believes there is over a 50% chance of escalation, and if the US and Israel take action, it could lead to the fall of the Iranian regime. While oil prices may rise in the short term, it could be beneficial in the long run.

SighingCashier

2026-03-27 20:20:08

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Economist Nouriel Roubini, who is known as the “doomsday doctor,” says that U.S. President Trump is more likely to escalate the war against Iran in order to achieve victory, rather than back down and take on the risk of more severe consequences for the economy and the international order.

He said: “My baseline assessment is that the odds of escalation are greater than 50%. The likelihood of escalating and failing is less than the likelihood of escalating and winning, but it will involve enormous risk.”

At the Ambrosetti Forum, Roubini said the more likely scenario is that if the United States and Israel escalate their actions, the Iranian regime would collapse, bringing better results in the medium term—even if oil prices rise in the short term. Therefore, both Trump and Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have incentives to escalate and fight to win.

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