Examining Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) Valuation After Recent Share Moves And OJEMDA Growth Expectations

Simply Wall St

Sun, February 15, 2026 at 3:09 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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DAWN

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Recent share performance and business snapshot

Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) has attracted attention after recent share moves, with the stock last closing at US$11.35. Short term returns are mixed, while performance over the past 3 months and year shows clear volatility.

The company reports revenue of US$133.672 million and a net loss of US$151.758 million, reflecting an early commercial stage profile. Reported annual revenue and net income growth rates are 27.8% and 62.5% respectively.

See our latest analysis for Day One Biopharmaceuticals.

At the current share price of US$11.35, Day One Biopharmaceuticals shows a 28.98% 3 month share price return and 28.25% year to date share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return is a 7.42% decline. This suggests that shorter term momentum has picked up even as longer term holders remain in the red.

If recent biotech swings have your attention, it could be a moment to scan a wider set of healthcare names using our screener of 25 healthcare AI stocks as potential ideas to research next.

So with Day One Biopharmaceuticals trading at US$11.35, showing mixed long term returns but a value score of 4 and a sizeable gap to analyst targets, is there an overlooked opportunity here, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 49% Undervalued

At a last close of $11.35 versus a narrative fair value of $22.25, the most followed view sees meaningful upside potential anchored in OJEMDA and pipeline expansion.

OJEMDA’s strong adoption, combined with ongoing physician education and accumulating long term clinical data, is accelerating its potential to become the new standard of care for relapsed/refractory pediatric low grade glioma (pLGG), supporting faster market penetration and sustained top line revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue curve and margin shift would need to play out for that valuation to hold up? The narrative leans on ambitious growth, improving profitability and a premium future earnings multiple that many investors usually associate with more mature sectors. If you want to see how those assumptions connect back to today’s share price, the full story is worth a closer read.

Result: Fair Value of $22.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on OJEMDA staying on track and pipeline additions like the Mersana programs delivering, with setbacks in either case potentially challenging that upside story.

Story continues  

Find out about the key risks to this Day One Biopharmaceuticals narrative.

Another angle on valuation

Our DCF model paints a very different picture, with DAWN at $11.35 trading 86.2% below an estimated future cash flow value of $82.11. That suggests a much larger upside than the narrative fair value of $22.25. Which set of assumptions do you trust more?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

DAWN Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Build Your Own Day One Biopharmaceuticals Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build and tweak a complete thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Day One Biopharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for more investment ideas?

If DAWN has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other ideas that could suit your goals and risk comfort.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include DAWN.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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