CITIC Futures: Oil and Commodity Sentiment Dominates Fluctuations, Pure Benzene Oscillates with Strength

Currently, pure benzene prices are mainly driven by geopolitical factors, with strong volatility. On the energy side, the transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, and tight spot crude oil supplies are pushing oil prices higher; according to Kpler data, more than 50% of naphtha imports to China and South Korea are affected by Strait disruptions. Asian naphtha supplies are tightening. According to Longzhong, MOPJ naphtha prices increased by $128 per ton week-on-week, which may impact the operation of domestic and international cracking units. Currently, BZN has turned negative. On the supply side, according to Zhuochuang Information, Shijiazhuang Refinery has begun maintenance, and some major refineries are reducing production. On the demand side, Zhuochuang reports that downstream profits are still decent, with no significant negative feedback pressure. Regarding gasoline blending, after the domestic refined oil export ban, overseas gasoline cracking spreads and octane numbers have strengthened in tandem, increasing the value of aromatics blending. The impact of geopolitics on pure benzene has shifted from cost-side panic to actual supply reduction. (CITIC Futures)