Injecting Certainty into Future Industry Development Through Institutional Innovation

Securities Times Reporter He Jueyuan Guo Bohao

The future industry represents the direction of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. Its high level of uncertainty is a significant feature that distinguishes it from emerging industries and traditional industries. The uncertainty in investment returns leads to capital being “hesitant to invest” or “unwilling to invest,” while the variability of technological routes results in high trial-and-error costs for enterprises. The “14th Five-Year Plan” outline calls for “establishing mechanisms for increased investment and risk sharing in future industries,” aiming to hedge against uncertainties in the development process through institutional certainty.

Future industries are driven by cutting-edge technologies, covering key areas such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication. An official from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology pointed out that China possesses comprehensive advantages such as a complete industrial system, large industrial scale, and rich application scenarios, providing fertile ground for future industry development. However, China also faces issues like insufficient systematic planning and an unstable technological foundation.

Currently, China’s future industry development mainly relies on fiscal and state-owned capital investments, with insufficient participation from social capital, and limited input in original innovation and pilot testing stages. How to break dependence on fiscal funds, encourage various business entities and social capital to actively participate, and stimulate the vitality of enterprises as innovation drivers is crucial for advancing future industries.

The solution lies in bridging the gap between the high-risk nature of future industries and the risk-averse tendencies of capital. On one hand, establishing an investment growth mechanism addresses the funding dilemma of “where the money comes from”; on the other hand, risk-sharing mechanisms eliminate concerns of “being hesitant to invest.”

Building an investment growth mechanism focuses on creating a “government-guided, market-led, multi-party coordination” financing framework. Given the long cultivation cycle and high risks of future industries, it is necessary to strengthen patient capital, establish more guiding funds suitable for long-term development, and leverage a “mother fund + sub-fund” structure to mobilize social capital for co-investment and long-term investment, forming a relay of funds. Additionally, financial innovation should be promoted by developing specialized products like intellectual property pledge financing to channel financial resources precisely to startups. Further, deepening the reform from “allocation to investment” of fiscal funds—transforming fiscal appropriations into equity investments—can create a virtuous cycle of “investment—exit—recycling,” ensuring continuous capital replenishment.

Establishing risk-sharing mechanisms emphasizes creating a multi-party sharing system with clear responsibilities, risk sharing, and benefit sharing. It is necessary to promote joint risk-taking among government, enterprises, financial institutions, and research institutes to reduce the trial-and-error costs for individual entities. Differentiated assessments should be implemented for government investment funds and state-owned capital investments in future industries, along with establishing a fault-tolerance mechanism centered on due diligence and compliance responsibilities, fostering an environment that encourages innovation and tolerates failure. Meanwhile, policies supporting the first set of equipment, first batch of new materials, and initial software should be effectively implemented to address key bottlenecks in technology maturation and market validation. Using scenario-based applications to hedge technological and market uncertainties will further strengthen social capital’s confidence and expected returns in participating.

The implementation of investment growth and risk-sharing mechanisms also requires a mature industrial ecosystem. Currently, China’s future industry ecosystem is relatively weak; it needs to cultivate and expand leading technology enterprises and unicorns to leverage their “chain leadership” role. Promoting small and medium-sized enterprises to specialize, refine, and innovate in niche fields is essential—breaking industry barriers and facilitating the free flow of talent, capital, data, and other elements within the ecosystem.

The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is a critical window for establishing a solid future industry layout. Building mechanisms for increased investment and risk sharing not only supports industry development at the financing level but also consolidates the institutional foundation for innovation across the entire future industry chain, helping China seize opportunities and gain initiative in the global new round of technological revolution.

(Edited by: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

【Disclaimer】This article reflects only the author’s personal views and has no relation to Hexun.com. Hexun.com remains neutral regarding the statements and opinions expressed in this article and does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content. Readers are advised to use it for reference only and bear all responsibilities themselves. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com