CITIC Futures: Geopolitical Expectations Fluctuate, Oil Price Volatility Worsens

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-25T02:17:36+00:00

Expectations of a potential easing of US-Iran tensions have triggered a sharp decline in oil prices. Geopolitical prospects still carry significant uncertainty, and the market is expected to be in a phase of expectation fluctuations. The crude oil market currently faces a substantial supply gap, with limited potential release volumes from Iranian and Russian floating storage, while production cut pressures on Persian Gulf countries persist. Subsequent expectation divergences are mainly driven by developments in US-Iran conflicts, tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy facilities. During this phase of geopolitical expectation fluctuations, oil prices are expected to oscillate at elevated levels. (CITIC Futures)

K-LinePoet

2026-03-25 02:17:36

The expectation that the US-Iran situation may cool down has triggered a sharp decline in oil prices. The geopolitical outlook still carries significant uncertainty, and it is expected to remain in a state of expectation fluctuation. Currently, the crude oil market faces a substantial supply gap, with Iran and Russia’s floating storage potential release limited, and the Persian Gulf countries still under pressure to cut production. Future deviations in expectations will mainly stem from developments in the US-Iran conflict, the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on energy facilities. During this geopolitical expectation fluctuation phase, oil prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels. (CITIC Futures)

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