TradFi Market View | 3/25

US Equities: Consolidating at High Levels, Awaiting Catalysts
Following yesterday's rebound, US equities are consolidating at elevated levels today. Markets have digested the US-Iran de-escalation expectations, with a lack of new upside catalysts in the near term. This week, focus on core PCE data (the Fed's most-watched inflation indicator); if data exceeds expectations, rate-cut expectations may be postponed again, pressuring US equities.

Gold: Stabilizing After Pullback
Risk premium unwinding is largely complete, with gold finding support near $2,900. Medium to long-term fundamentals (central bank gold purchases + de-dollarization) remain unchanged; pullback zones present allocation opportunities. Should US-Iran negotiations encounter setbacks, gold will rebound swiftly.

Crude Oil: Bottoming Out at Lower Levels
Geopolitical de-escalation weighs on oil prices, but OPEC+ production cut floor remains intact. WTI has strong support in the $75-78 range; significant downside is limited. Watch this week's EIA crude inventory data.

US Dollar: Narrow-Range Consolidation
Markets await PCE guidance; the dollar index trades sideways in the 103-104 range. Direction depends on inflation data—if PCE is elevated, the dollar strengthens; if in line with expectations, the dollar weakens.

Bond Market: Stable
10-year US Treasury yields maintain the 4.2-4.3% range; markets show significant divergence on rate-cut paths, with bond markets entering a wait-and-see mode.

Today's Core Judgment:

Markets are entering a "data-driven" phase, with this week's PCE as the biggest variable. Before data release, various assets will consolidate, with unclear direction; maintaining a light position and watching is the optimal strategy.

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