Asia-Pacific markets, across-the-board surge! Strait of Hormuz, new developments emerge

All markets are up!

On the morning of March 25, Asia-Pacific markets all rose. As of press time, the Nikkei 225 index increased by 2.81%, South Korea’s KOSPI index rose by 2.72%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.66%.

Gold and silver prices also continued to climb. Spot gold rose 1.72 intraday, trading at $4,549 per ounce; spot silver increased over 2%, at $72.83 per ounce.

Earlier reports indicated that the U.S. proposed a ceasefire plan with 15 points to Iran. The U.S. intends to hold a one-month ceasefire to negotiate these 15 items with Iran. However, Iran has not responded yet. Notably, while proposing the ceasefire, the U.S. is also ramping up troop deployments.

Meanwhile, new developments came from the Strait of Hormuz. On the 24th local time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ordered a vessel that had entered the Strait without authorization to return, stating that all ships passing through must coordinate fully with Iranian maritime authorities.

Asia-Pacific stocks collectively rally

Thanks to hopes for negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict, Asia-Pacific markets rose collectively today. As of press time, the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI indices both gained over 2%. SK Hynix rose nearly 4%, Samsung Electronics increased over 2%, and SoftBank Group rose over 3%. SK Hynix has submitted Form F-1 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to apply for a U.S. listing.

According to Xinhua, citing Israel’s Channel 12 TV on the 24th, the U.S. intends to propose a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement aimed at ending the war with Iran.

Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Man Group Plc, said, “Investors tend to stay optimistic because they want to believe the best news. But this optimism carries the risk of mispricing and not fully accounting for downside risks.”

Vanda Research, a U.S. market data analysis firm, noted that retail trading has cooled since the Iran conflict erupted. Monday marked a “key turning point,” with retail investors net selling $20.6 million worth of stocks, the first net sell-off since November 2023. However, signs on Tuesday indicated these investors are starting to buy the dip again.

“We are actually becoming more optimistic,” said Michael Brown, Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in London. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty, but the key is that since the conflict began, we’ve seen for the first time signs that Trump is seeking a way out and easing tensions.” He added that Trump’s posts during Monday’s trading session triggered a strong risk-on market reaction, which to some extent suggests that further concrete steps toward ceasefire and normalizing commodity flows could influence market responses in the future.

However, many fund managers are still maintaining hedged positions, holding high levels of cash, and closely watching oil prices and Federal Reserve signals. The consensus is that any short-term relief rally is fragile, mainly driven by hopes of easing tensions rather than decisive solutions or fundamental shifts.

Jon Vesar, Fund Manager at Pictet Asset Management, said he has not changed his positions, including hedges, because the unpredictable situation worries many investors.

Latest updates on Iran situation

According to CCTV News, on March 24 local time, Iran’s Navy Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the container ship SELEN was ordered to return after violating laws and unauthorized entry into the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that all ships passing through the Strait must coordinate fully with Iranian maritime authorities.

Additionally, Xinhua reported that Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting on the 24th quoted Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Pakhnerjad as calling on the UN Secretary-General to condemn U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran’s critical oil and gas facilities.

Pakhnerjad said in the letter that such attacks could lead to serious humanitarian and environmental consequences, exceeding limited military actions, and amount to a full-scale war against Iran’s energy security and economy. He stressed that Iran has never initiated any aggression nor seeks to escalate regional tensions.

It is noteworthy that while proposing a ceasefire plan to Iran, the U.S. is also increasing troop deployments. According to CCTV, a Marine expeditionary unit and two amphibious assault ships will arrive in the Middle East by the 27th, coinciding with the so-called “final deadline” set by President Trump for “opening” the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition to the Marine unit, Trump is reportedly also authorized to deploy over 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East. The 82nd Airborne has an “Immediate Response Force” capable of deploying worldwide within about 18 hours. This light infantry unit specializes in rapid parachute insertions into contested areas.

Regarding the confusing information about U.S.-Iran negotiations, former CIA Director John Brennan said he prefers to believe Iran’s account over that of President Trump. “I’d rather believe Iran than our own president.”

Layout: Wang Lulu

Proofreading: Ran Yanqing