Domestic refined oil prices may face five consecutive increases

According to the refined oil price adjustment schedule, at 24:00 on March 23 (next Monday), the retail price limit for domestically refined oil will undergo a new round of adjustment.

Latest international crude oil price trend predictions tracked by institutions show that the increase in retail price limits for refined oil in this round will far exceed the adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton. It is highly likely that retail prices will be raised. Based on calculations, the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline may fully enter the “9-yuan era.”

According to institutional estimates, as of the ninth working day on March 20, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was $96.89 per barrel, with a change rate of 29.31%. The corresponding retail prices for domestic gasoline and diesel should be increased by 2,000 yuan/ton. Converted to per liter, the price of 92-octane gasoline will rise by 1.6 yuan, meaning private car owners will spend about 80 yuan more to fill a 50-liter tank (same below). However, the final increase will depend on the international oil price performance on the last working day.

Since the average international oil price during this adjustment cycle is still rising, a domestic price jump next Monday is certain, and the final increase may be further expanded.

Cui Chuang Information’s refined oil analyst Meng Peng stated that with only one working day left before this adjustment window opens, the short-term change rate of crude oil may continue to rise, and the final increase in domestic refined oil retail prices could reach around 2,200 yuan/ton. Based on this calculation, the price per liter of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and zero diesel will increase by 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.87 yuan respectively. If this adjustment is implemented, domestic 92-octane gasoline prices will fully enter the “9-yuan era.” At that time, private car owners will need to spend an additional 86.5 yuan to fill a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline.

Since 2026, there have been five rounds of adjustments to the retail price limit for domestic refined oil, including four increases and one pause. The prices of domestic gasoline and diesel have increased by 1,160 yuan and 1,120 yuan per ton respectively since the end of 2025.

Sources: China Securities Journal, Ningbo Release, Yangtze Evening Post, China National Radio

Images: China Securities Journal

Source: Consumer Daily Official Platform