"Dubai house prices drop 50%"? Not true! Some Middle Eastern family offices have rushed to Hong Kong.

Why is AI and Middle Eastern capital shifting to Hong Kong? What are the driving factors behind this trend?

Recent reports indicate that due to the spillover of Middle Eastern military conflicts into the UAE, with attacks on Dubai’s core areas, the image of Dubai as a “safe haven in the Middle East” has been tarnished. Social media has been abuzz with discussions about “major adjustments in Dubai’s real estate market and benefits for Hong Kong,” along with rumors of “Dubai property prices halving.”

According to Wind data, Dubai’s real estate and construction index (DFMREI) has experienced a significant decline since late February, with a drop of over 30% in the past 20 days.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s advantage as a global capital safe haven has become more apparent. On March 15, Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, publicly stated that Hong Kong’s status as a financial center remains stable and confirmed that some Middle Eastern family offices have already arrived in Hong Kong, reflecting increased global risk aversion.

What is the truth about Dubai’s real estate market? Are capital flows really shifting en masse to Hong Kong? To clarify these questions, the Daily Economic News interviewed several Dubai real estate practitioners, residents, and industry experts to reveal the real market situation.

Dubai Landmark Buildings Attacked Spark Widespread Market Attention

Claims of “Dubai Property Prices Falling 50%” Are Unfounded

After the conflict erupted, social media widely circulated claims that “Dubai property prices have plummeted 50%,” “core projects like Palm Jumeirah and Burj Khalifa have been halved and are being sold off,” and “Chinese investors are trapped.” Some media outlets even claimed that “Dubai’s real estate market reverted to pre-2020 levels overnight.”

Cross-verification by the reporter shows these rumors are heavily exaggerated. Mainstream areas in Dubai have not experienced drastic price drops, nor are there cases of transactions halving in price.

In fact, Chinese capital has long been an important force in Dubai’s real estate market. Over the years, Dubai has been like a glittering haven of wealth, attracting global billionaires to allocate assets there.

Public data shows that currently, Chinese developers such as Gold Moon Properties and Tomorrow World are active in Dubai. State-owned enterprises like China State Construction and CITIC are also deeply involved in landmark projects.

According to reports, Dubai’s official data indicates that by 2025, Chinese buyers will account for the top three overseas investors in Dubai real estate, with a share of 14%. In some popular developments, Chinese and Chinese-descended investors make up 20%–30%.

“Online rumors that Dubai property prices have fallen by half are exaggerated; that chart (showing a 50% drop) is false,” said Sun Qiang, who has been working in Dubai’s real estate industry for over ten years. He stated that current Dubai property prices show no obvious downward trend, and local life, security, and supplies remain normal. However, the ongoing conflict has disrupted some potential investors’ plans.

He recalled that Dubai’s real estate market at the start of the year was performing well, but after the outbreak of conflict on February 28, there was some impact.

He mentioned that a Chinese client arrived in Dubai on February 27, paid a deposit the next morning, and after learning about the conflict in the afternoon, immediately requested a refund. Several transactions that were close to completion fell through.

Additionally, Able, a senior Dubai real estate agent, said that luxury areas like Burj Khalifa and Palm Jumeirah have been largely unaffected by the conflict and remain stable. In contrast, remote areas about 30 minutes from the city center experienced a slight correction of about 5%, far from the “halving” rumors.

Market transaction data further supports this trend.

According to Dubai Land Department (DLD) data released in February, Dubai’s real estate sales volume in February 2026 was approximately 16,979 units, up 5.1% year-on-year; average property price was 1,740 Dirhams per square foot (about 39,500 RMB per square meter), up 12.2% year-on-year.

However, data from UAE’s leading property intelligence platform Property Monitor shows that from February 16 to March 17, the number of apartment transactions was 10,604, down 22.67% year-on-year. The average apartment price was 2,055,730 AED (about 3.86 million RMB) per unit, down 0.88% year-on-year; the average price per square foot was 1,949 AED (about 37,400 RMB), down 3.53%.

Recent Dubai apartment transaction data (translated from app screenshots)  Source: Property Monitor

Some available listings (translated from app screenshots)  Source: Property Monitor

One unit located in Ras Al Khaimah, approximately 558 square feet (about 51.84 square meters), is priced at around 1,232,903 AED (about 2.31 million RMB), roughly 44,600 RMB per square meter.

Lily, a four-star certified real estate agent by Dubai Land Department, told the reporter that although transaction volume has been affected over the past three weeks since the escalation of the Middle East conflict, prices have not experienced a significant decline. She considers the rumors of “50% price halving” to be completely false.

While prices have remained relatively stable, the war has impacted Lily’s business.

“I can be very straightforward with you: we are basically unemployed now,” Lily admitted. She used to handle about five client inquiries daily, with a minimum of three deals per month, and over ten during peak seasons. Recently, in the past three weeks, she has only closed one deal. “Many colleagues haven’t closed any deals at all.”

Lily (first from left) showing Chinese investors around Dubai properties. Photo source: interviewee provided

She emphasized that this does not mean property prices have halved. “Why would I choose to sell at a 50% loss now? The war has only been going on for three weeks; I can’t sell at a loss that big so soon.” She added that properties already rented out are unaffected, and rental income remains stable.

She observed that about 90% of property transactions are currently on hold, mainly because buyers are cautious. However, she also mentioned that some long-term optimistic investors are still “picking up bargains.” “Last week, a long-term client who bought property worth several million yuan from me bought another unit.”

Shift from Off-Plan to Ready Properties as Investment Preference

Lily, who has lived in Dubai for 16 years and runs a lighting business, said that current Dubai property prices remain firm, but the conflict has caused buyers and sellers to hesitate.

Ms. Lu, a long-term Dubai resident and finance professional, also revealed that she has been examining properties in Damac Hills and JLT since late 2025. At that time, prices were still high, but she has since paused all plans due to the conflict.

She believes that areas like Jebel Ali, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), and near the airport are at higher risk of value decline, and whether prices bottom out depends on how long the conflict lasts.

Michael Zhou, head of Greater China at Cushman & Wakefield, said that the geopolitical turmoil has not shaken Dubai’s fundamental market. In 2025, Dubai’s total real estate transactions exceeded 270,000, with a transaction volume of 917 billion Dirhams, a 20% increase year-on-year. The market’s strong start in 2026 also indicates resilience.

“The market’s change is also reflected in buyer preferences. Previously, off-plan properties accounted for about 60–70%, but after the conflict, ready properties now make up 70–80%, becoming the first choice for investors. The rent-to-price ratio in core areas remains stable, with Dubai Marina’s gross rent yield around 7%, and Downtown Dubai reaching 7.2%–7.4%. There has been no large-scale sell-off; only about 30% of investors are re-allocating assets due to short-term risks,” Zhou said.

Dubai’s historical investment return rates (rent-to-price ratios) Source: Cushman & Wakefield

Some cautious buyers are waiting for the right moment. Lily said, “I can feel the decline in transaction volume, but property prices are not falling. If prices drop, I might buy the dip, but I don’t see any signs of price cuts right now.”

Lily also mentioned that the median price of Dubai properties over the past few years has been around 4 million RMB per unit, which can buy an 80–200 square meter apartment. Properties priced above 4 million RMB can apply for a 10-year Golden Visa, attracting many international investors.

Official Confirmation: Some Middle Eastern Family Offices Have Arrived in Hong Kong

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s long-standing stable financial environment, comprehensive regulatory system, and its unique position connecting Mainland China and the global market have made it a preferred safe haven for global capital amid geopolitical turbulence.

On March 15, Paul Chan publicly emphasized that Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center continues to strengthen in terms of stability, security, and maturity.

He mentioned that in the face of global geopolitical uncertainties, the Hong Kong government will ensure smooth functioning of financial markets, continue to optimize asset management services, and send a clear message that “Hong Kong is the most ideal platform for asset management.” This reassures capital flowing into Hong Kong. He also confirmed that some Middle Eastern family offices have already arrived, and law firms, banks, and other institutions have received related inquiries.

To further attract global family offices, Hong Kong is continuously refining policies.

Paul Chan revealed that the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau plans to submit legislation to expand tax incentives for family offices and qualifying funds, including areas like precious metals and digital assets.

A report by Citibank in March 2026 pointed out that Middle Eastern geopolitical instability will continue to drive some risk-averse funds into Hong Kong. In the first week of March, net capital inflow from the Middle East into Hong Kong exceeded HKD 300 billion; recent IPOs in Hong Kong also saw increased participation from Middle Eastern sovereign funds, with cornerstone subscriptions rising from 18% to 39.2%. The influx of capital and talent may boost demand for residential and office properties.

Additionally, Daily Economic News found that in recent IPOs of Hong Kong-listed companies, Middle Eastern sovereign funds such as Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), and Mubadala have been frequently involved. This year, companies like Xiyu Technology, Jingfeng Medical, and Dongpeng Beverage have all seen Middle Eastern capital as cornerstone investors, covering sectors like AI, new energy, high-end manufacturing, consumer goods, and finance.

For example, Dongpeng Beverage’s cornerstone investors include a platform indirectly controlled by QIA, which led a USD 150 million investment through Al-Rayyan Holding LLC. Similarly, Xiyu Technology listed in January, with Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) as a cornerstone investor, subscribing at HKD 165 per share for 3.065 million shares, totaling about HKD 506 million.

Have Global Investors Changed Their Priorities in Property Investment?

Huang Lichong, President of Hesheng International Capital, believes that while the recent Middle Eastern tensions have temporarily increased risk aversion, this is not a wholesale shift of capital but rather an incremental flow.

“Dubai’s stock market and market sentiment experienced a noticeable rebound around March 10, due to expectations that the conflict might quickly de-escalate, indicating that investors are mainly concerned with the duration of the conflict rather than a permanent rejection of Dubai or Middle Eastern assets.”

He added that Dubai’s real estate fundamentals remain solid. In 2025, the market set a record with over 270,000 transactions and 917 billion Dirhams in volume, and early 2026 has been promising.

“The market’s change is also reflected in buyer preferences. Previously, about 60–70% of transactions involved off-plan properties, but after the conflict, ready properties now account for 70–80%, becoming the preferred choice. The rent-to-price ratios in core areas remain stable, with Dubai Marina’s gross yield around 7%, and Downtown Dubai reaching 7.2%–7.4%. Large-scale sell-offs have not occurred; only about 30% of investors are reallocating assets due to short-term risks,” Zhou said.

Some cautious investors are waiting for better timing. Lily said, “I can sense the decline in transaction volume, but property prices are not dropping. If they do, I might buy the dip, but I don’t see any signs of price cuts yet.”

Lily also noted that the median price of Dubai properties in recent years has been around 4 million RMB per unit, which can buy an 80–200 square meter apartment. Properties above this price point can apply for a 10-year Golden Visa, attracting many international investors.

Official Confirmation: Some Middle Eastern Family Offices Have Arrived in Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s stable financial environment, comprehensive regulation, and its unique position connecting Mainland China and the world make it an attractive safe haven for global capital amid geopolitical uncertainties.

On March 15, Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, emphasized that Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center continues to strengthen, with ongoing improvements in stability and security.

He stated that the Hong Kong government will ensure smooth financial market operations, optimize asset management services, and send a clear message that “Hong Kong is the most ideal platform for asset management.” Some Middle Eastern family offices have already arrived, and legal, banking, and other institutions have received related inquiries.

To attract more family offices, Hong Kong is actively refining policies.

Paul Chan revealed that the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau plans to submit legislation to expand tax incentives for family offices and qualifying funds, including areas like precious metals and digital assets.

A March 2026 report by Citibank indicates that ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical instability will continue to channel risk-averse funds into Hong Kong. In early March, net inflows from the Middle East into Hong Kong exceeded HKD 300 billion; recent IPOs have seen increased participation from Middle Eastern sovereign funds, with cornerstone subscriptions rising from 18% to 39.2%. The influx of capital and talent is likely to boost demand for residential and office properties.

Additionally, Daily Economic News observed that in recent Hong Kong IPOs, Middle Eastern sovereign funds such as ADIA, QIA, KIA, and Mubadala have been active as cornerstone investors. Companies like Xiyu Technology, Jingfeng Medical, and Dongpeng Beverage have all attracted Middle Eastern capital, covering sectors like AI, renewable energy, high-end manufacturing, consumer goods, and finance.

For example, Dongpeng Beverage’s cornerstone investor includes a platform indirectly controlled by QIA, which led a USD 150 million investment through Al-Rayyan Holding LLC. Similarly, Xiyu Technology listed in January, with ADIA as a cornerstone investor, subscribing at HKD 165 per share for 3.065 million shares, totaling about HKD 506 million.

Are Investors’ Priorities Changing in Property Investment?

Huang Lichong, President of Hesheng International Capital, believes that while the recent Middle Eastern tensions have temporarily increased risk aversion, this is not a complete shift of capital but rather an incremental flow.

“Dubai’s stock market and sentiment rebounded around March 10, due to expectations of quick de-escalation, indicating that investors are mainly concerned with the conflict’s duration rather than a permanent rejection of Dubai or Middle Eastern assets.”

He added that Dubai’s real estate market remains fundamentally strong. In 2025, the market hit a record with over 270,000 transactions and 917 billion Dirhams in volume, and early 2026 has been promising.

“The market’s change is also reflected in buyer preferences. Previously, about 60–70% of transactions involved off-plan properties, but after the conflict, ready properties now account for 70–80%, becoming the first choice for investors. The rent-to-price ratios in core areas remain stable, with Dubai Marina’s gross yield around 7%, and Downtown Dubai reaching 7.2%–7.4%. Large-scale sell-offs have not occurred; only about 30% of investors are reallocating assets due to short-term risks,” Zhou said.

Some cautious investors are waiting for the right moment. Lily said, “I can feel the decline in transaction volume, but property prices are not falling. If they do, I might buy the dip, but I don’t see any signs of price cuts yet.”

Lily also noted that the median property price in Dubai over recent years has been around 4 million RMB per unit, which can buy an 80–200 square meter apartment. Properties above this price can apply for a 10-year Golden Visa, attracting many international investors.