Early morning, a dramatic plunge in the straight-line market! Major news from the US, Israel, and Iran →

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Source: Futures Daily

Good morning, let’s first focus on the international markets.

Oil Prices Plunge

Yesterday, there was news that Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port halted oil shipments. Brent crude futures rose over 8% at one point, breaking the $110 per barrel mark.

Later, two sources revealed that Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port resumed oil shipments. Brent crude futures’ gains narrowed.

Early this morning, influenced by easing Middle East tensions and other factors, international oil prices tumbled. By the close, WTI crude futures fell 0.19%, while Brent crude futures rose 0.2%.

Gold and Silver Prices Drop Sharply

On Thursday evening, precious metals experienced a significant plunge. Spot gold prices dropped over 6%, approaching the $4,500 per ounce level; spot silver prices fell below $66 per ounce, hitting a new low since February 6, with a intraday drop of 12%.

Meanwhile, global stock markets and government bonds declined simultaneously. European markets fell sharply during the session, and the three major U.S. stock indices also opened significantly lower.

By the close, Germany’s DAX 30 index fell 2.53% to 22,907.91 points. France’s stock index dropped 1.73%, Italy’s declined 2.29%, and the UK’s fell 2.39%. The three major U.S. indices all closed lower: Dow down 0.44%, Nasdaq down 0.28%, and S&P 500 down 0.28%.

Late Thursday in New York, gold and silver prices narrowed their losses. Spot gold fell 3.42% to $4,653.01 per ounce; COMEX gold futures dropped 4.86% to $4,657.80 per ounce; spot silver declined 3.33% to $72.85 per ounce; COMEX silver futures fell 6.29% to $72.84 per ounce.

Analysts believe that Middle East conflicts have driven energy prices higher and increased inflation concerns, prompting markets to expect major central banks to keep interest rates high, which has suppressed risk assets.

TD Securities Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali said, “Gold has become widely held by institutional investors, mainly driven by the ‘currency devaluation trade’ over the past year. But the foundation of this trade is weakening. In the short term, we still see downside risks for gold prices.”

An analyst from SP Angel noted that the decline in gold prices was also influenced by profit-taking and a strengthening dollar. After a significant rise in gold prices in 2025, investors locking in gains, dealing with margin calls, and shifting funds into energy assets like oil is a reasonable market response.

Iran Launches 66th Wave of Strikes, Prime Minister Says Will Suspend Airstrikes on Energy Facilities, Trump Comments

According to CCTV News, early on the 20th local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying Iran launched the 66th round of military operations called “Real Commitment-4,” using various heavy multi-warhead missiles and drones to attack targets in central and southern Israel, as well as U.S. military bases in the Middle East.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said at a press conference on the 19th that Israel “conducted a solo” airstrike on an Iranian natural gas field, and that Israel would “comply” with U.S. President Trump’s request to “pause” further airstrikes on energy facilities.

Earlier that day, Trump told the media at the White House that he had informed Netanyahu not to attack Iran’s energy facilities.

Major Gulf oil-producing countries see about 61% drop in oil exports

According to Kpler data, from March 1 to 19, 69 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including 61 liquid cargo ships and 8 LPG ships, with no LNG ships recorded. Compared to an average of 77 ships per day before the outbreak of Middle East tensions on February 28, daily passage has sharply fallen to less than 4 ships, a decline of over 95%, with commercial shipping nearly halted. In the week ending March 15, oil exports from eight Gulf countries—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE—averaged 9.71 million barrels per day, down from an average of 25.13 million barrels per day in February, a drop of about 61%.

Analysts: Some oil-producing countries face large-scale shutdown risks

Due to escalating Middle East tensions, crude oil prices have surged since March. Several analysts told Futures Daily that the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused supply disruptions, and the initial phase of pulse-like oil price increases may not be over. Market focus is shifting from “how much will prices rise” to fears of inflation or stagflation.

According to Ye Haiwen, manager of the Energy and Chemical Research Center at Guomao Futures, the Strait of Hormuz is vital for global energy transportation, handling about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily. The March IEA monthly report states that Middle Eastern oil producers have been forced to cut output by about 10 million barrels per day, with offshore crude stockpiles accumulating around 78 million barrels.

“Although Saudi Arabia is operating alternative shipping routes at near full capacity—about 7 million barrels per day—only 5 million barrels are used for exports, with 2 million for Western refineries, which cannot fully compensate for the supply gap. The longer the Strait remains blocked, the higher the freight and insurance costs, which will eventually be reflected in oil prices,” Ye said.

Du Bingqin, Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures, said that recent escalation of Middle East tensions has significantly impacted normal oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Most ships are still cautious, and short-term throughput is expected to remain low. Current oil supply reductions have exceeded those during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. If the conflict spreads to other Middle Eastern countries and threatens ports outside the Strait of Hormuz, some supply disruptions could become permanent.

“Currently, the global oil supply gap in March is close to 8 million barrels per day, surpassing the supply reductions during the 1973 oil crisis. Dubai crude prices have surged to $155 per barrel, with Brent crude’s spread over WTI exceeding $55, directly reflecting regional shortages. Asia’s oil imports have dropped 32% month-on-month, and refinery costs are soaring as they scramble to buy from the Americas and Africa. If the Strait remains blocked for more than 21 days, storage tanks in some Middle Eastern countries will be exhausted, potentially leading to large-scale shutdowns,” Ye said.

Looking ahead, Du believes that this week, Trump authorized a 60-day temporary exemption under the Jones Act to reduce transportation costs for commodities like oil and natural gas within the U.S. The spread between Brent and WTI futures has widened. With rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing supply disruptions, crude oil futures are expected to remain relatively strong with high volatility.

“Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and floating inventories are released, short-term oil prices will likely stay below pre-conflict levels, as restoring production takes time. If prices stay high long-term, downstream chemical industries could face losses, and with the Fed’s rate cut expectations cooling, high oil prices will further weigh on the global economy. In the medium term, sustained high prices could accelerate the clearance of inefficient refining and cracking capacity, especially since the energy sector is at a cyclical bottom, and prices for energy products may further rise,” Ye concluded.