Oil prices may once again return to the "9-yuan era"

Ma Shuang / China Securities Golden Bull

According to the refined oil price adjustment schedule, at 24:00 on March 23 (next Monday), the retail price limit of domestic refined oil will undergo a new round of adjustment.

Latest international crude oil price change predictions tracked by institutions show that the current round of retail price increases will far exceed the adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton. It is highly likely that the retail prices of refined oil will be raised. Based on calculations, the price of domestic 92-octane gasoline may fully enter the “9-yuan era.”

Refined Oil Retail Price Limit May Increase

Since the current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil, international crude oil prices have risen sharply. As a result, the reference change rate of crude oil in China has continued to expand within positive values.

Meng Peng, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information for refined oil, said that recently, tensions in the Middle East have persisted, and concerns about reduced crude oil supply have continued to intensify, driving international crude oil prices to remain relatively strong within high ranges. Influenced by this, since the start of this pricing cycle, the average international crude oil price has surged compared to the previous cycle, with the reference change rate starting at a high positive level and then continuing to rise overall.

According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information’s monitoring model, as of the close on March 19, the ninth working day of the current domestic refined oil pricing cycle, the reference crude oil change rate was 45.21%. Based on this, the corresponding increase in domestic retail prices of refined oil is approximately 2,000 yuan/ton.

Meng Peng stated that with only one working day remaining before the price adjustment window opens, the short-term change rate of crude oil may continue to rise, and the final increase in domestic retail prices of refined oil could reach about 2,200 yuan/ton. Based on this calculation, the price per liter of 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and zero diesel would increase by 1.73 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.87 yuan respectively. If this adjustment is implemented, the price of 92-octane gasoline nationwide will fully enter the “9-yuan era.” At that time, private car owners will spend an additional 86.5 yuan to fill a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline.

Longzhong Information’s analyst Liu Ting also said that there is no suspense about the increase in domestic refined oil retail prices this round. According to the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the increase for this cycle is about 2,000 yuan/ton. If implemented at this level, it will mark the fifth consecutive increase this year and set a new record for the largest price hike within the year.

Since 2026, domestic refined oil retail prices have undergone five adjustment windows, including four increases and one pause, with the prices of gasoline and diesel rising by 1,160 yuan and 1,120 yuan per ton respectively compared to the end of 2025.

Significant Rise in Wholesale Prices of Gasoline and Diesel

Since the start of this pricing cycle, wholesale prices in the refined oil market have risen sharply. Data monitored by Longzhong shows that as of March 19, the average market price for 92-octane gasoline was 9,479 yuan/ton, up 14.8% from the previous adjustment cycle; the average price for diesel was 7,977 yuan/ton, up 15.9%.

Liu Ting said that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, and supply gaps in the international crude oil market have caused prices to continue rising, with Brent crude futures surpassing $100 per barrel. Additionally, concerns about domestic crude oil supply shortages persist, with state-owned large enterprises focusing on maintaining supply for retail, leading to a significant increase in wholesale refined oil prices.

Looking ahead at crude oil prices, Meng Peng said that in the short term, under the influence of geopolitical disturbances, international crude oil prices are likely to remain high.

Liu Ting also noted that tensions in the Middle East remain intense, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and supply risks in the crude oil market continue, so international crude oil prices may stay elevated in the near future.