Iran Gains Upper Hand in Strait of Hormuz, Pressuring Oil Buyers and Trump

Iran is fully leveraging its geographical advantage in the Strait of Hormuz to pressure energy buyers into negotiations for safe passage and is prompting the U.S. to seek help from other countries to reopen the strait — even in the best-case scenario, this process could take weeks.

As the war enters its third week, this narrow waterway has become a focal point for all parties. In response to U.S.-Israel airstrikes, Iran is using attacks on the waterway to create unprecedented chaos in energy trade — meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump views this area as a solution to soaring oil prices.

One day last week, three ships in the Persian Gulf were attacked, including a Thai-flagged bulk carrier attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, further raising concerns among shipowners.

The Strait of Hormuz is “at the heart of global geopolitical tensions,” said Rahul Kapoor, Global Head of Marine & Metals at S&P Global Energy. “Signals from shipping and energy markets indicate that the risk of a long-term disruption is undoubtedly higher than at any time in the past decades.”

This outlook is prompting major Asian consumer countries to seek alternatives to mitigate supply shortages and rising costs. India obtained clearance from Tehran allowing two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers to pass through the strait over the weekend — a small step toward alleviating a severe fuel shortage, but an important one. Both ships signaled that they were carrying Indian government cargo.

According to state media, Turkey received passage permission last week. A Pakistani vessel has also passed through the strait.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian said over the weekend that several countries have requested safe passage through the strait, adding that the strait is only closed to “hostile countries.” He did not specify which countries. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, stated in his first official declaration last week that Iran will continue to use the “closure of the Strait of Hormuz” as a tactic.

Over the past two weeks, only a few ships have passed through — almost all Iranian or Chinese vessels. An insider familiar with India’s arrangements revealed that India’s agreement is also one-way, meaning ships will not return loaded. Due to the sensitivity of the matter, the source requested anonymity.

Former President Trump had previously proposed maritime escort ideas, and over the weekend, he attempted to increase pressure on other countries, calling on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

So far, none of these countries have committed to providing support.

“The issue is how much risk you are willing to accept. If Trump orders the U.S. Navy to carry out this mission tomorrow, they will do so, but it will come with extremely high risks,” said Jennifer Parker, Associate Professor at the University of Western Australia’s Defence and Security Studies Institute.

“The priority is to weaken Iran’s command and control systems to impair its ability to lock ships, rather than providing escort for ships,” added the former naval officer.

The narrowest part of the strait is only 30 miles wide. Considering navigable channels, this greatly limits maneuvering space and the ability to respond to threats. These threats include missile attacks, unmanned surface vessels, and drone assaults — methods Iran has recently used to attack ships. The UK stated last week that Iran may have begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Therefore, the prospect of forming a broad coalition to escort ships — similar to efforts in the Red Sea to prevent Houthi attacks — seems distant. Some countries are trying to clarify what specific actions any escort operation might entail.