The "most panic moment" of the past year has already appeared! Will A-shares rebound tomorrow?

Last week’s trading period (March 16-20) was heavily influenced by ongoing overseas conflicts. The resilient A-share market experienced a significant correction after several weeks of stability.

Global Asset Performance Over the Past Four Weeks

Wind data shows that the Wind All A Index had four down days and one up day in daily trading, with three consecutive weekly declines and a monthly line temporarily falling below the May average.

Most major stock indices declined across the board, with micro-cap stocks leading the decline; only the ChiNext Index closed higher overall.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4,000 points in the second half of the week, drawing considerable attention. Some netizens joked, “We’re back in the comfort zone of veteran investors.”

Individual stock sentiment also hit freezing points repeatedly. Over the five trading days this week, three days saw more than 4,000 stocks decline.

Even more rare was the occurrence of two consecutive days (Thursday and Friday) with fewer than 1,000 stocks rising—an occurrence not seen in nearly a year (or since April 7 of last year), highlighting the market’s extreme panic.

Days Since Late March 2025 When Fewer Than 1,000 Stocks Rose

The worst situation traces back to a three-day decline from December 31, 2024, to January 3, 2025. However, the market stabilized and stopped falling on the following trading day (January 6). Just as stocks that overshoot tend to correct, oversold conditions often trigger technical rebounds, with larger oversold levels increasing the likelihood. The continuous freezing of market sentiment suggests that panic may have been excessive.

This short-term “emotion cycle,” repeatedly discussed in Thursday and Friday’s review articles, is also the most direct reason we cite for the upcoming market rebound.

Some analysts suggest that on Friday afternoon, the Shanghai Index sharply declined, closing at 3,957 points, losing the 4,000-point threshold and breaking below the intraday low of February 3 and the half-year moving average. If the market continues to decline at the start of next week, support levels are around 3,936 to 3,940 points; if it stabilizes within this range, a rebound from oversold conditions is possible.

Next, let’s explore more perspectives.

It’s important to note that the assessment of a rebound relies on an implicit premise—that the market is still in a “slow bull” trend. At least from the monthly and higher-level K-line charts, this remains unchanged.

Debon Securities points out that Friday’s significant market adjustment was driven by three main factors:

1. The futures delivery effect, as March 20 was the futures delivery date, which may have increased volatility;

2. Rising risk aversion overseas, with tensions in the Middle East elevating market risk premiums;

3. Technical adjustment pressures within the market itself, with strong selling pressure near the 4,000-point level on the Shanghai Index.

Looking ahead, they believe that the style of value growth may continue to differentiate. During this correction, undervalued, high-dividend sectors might be relatively resilient, especially as listed companies enter their intensive annual report disclosures. Conversely, high-valuation, highly elastic growth sectors could face some adjustment pressures.

The Middle East situation remains a major factor that’s hard to overlook in recent reviews.

Qianhai Open Source Fund Chief Economist Yang Delong wrote on Saturday that many are worried that the slow and long-term bull market, once started, might be interrupted by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. However, he believes: it will not. While the conflict causes short-term pain, it’s unlikely to end the current bull cycle.

He states: “This slow and long-term bull market is supported by deep fundamental logic, including strong policy support for capital markets, the transfer of household savings into the capital market, and China’s technological innovation attracting foreign investment into undervalued Chinese assets. These fundamentals have not fundamentally changed. Therefore, the volatility caused by Middle East conflicts should be seen as a short-term shock, not a long-term factor.”

He adds: “The trend of this slow and long-term bull market has been established and is off to a good start. We hope all sectors of society will actively nurture this trend and allow the bull market to continue.”

Of course, as of the weekend, despite some signals of easing, the Middle East situation remains complex.

For example:

According to CCTV News citing U.S. Treasury Department sources, on March 20 local time, the U.S. approved a 30-day authorization allowing the delivery and sale of ships loaded with Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. The new license permits the sale of Iranian oil and products already loaded onto ships as of March 20.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the department is issuing a “narrow, short-term authorization” to sell Iran’s oil currently stranded at sea. By temporarily releasing existing oil supplies, the U.S. aims to quickly provide about 140 million barrels of oil to the global market. This temporary license strictly applies to oil already in transit.

Earlier, President Donald Trump posted on his social media platform “Truth Social” that as they consider gradually de-escalating major military actions against the Iranian regime in the Middle East, they are very close to achieving their set goals.

Additionally:

According to CCTV International, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on the 21st that the U.S. and Israel conducted another attack on Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility. No radioactive leaks have been reported, and nearby residents are not at risk.

CCTV News also reports that Israeli Defense Minister Gantz stated on March 21 that Israel and the U.S. will significantly intensify military strikes against Iran over the coming week until all threats to Israeli and U.S. interests in the region are eliminated.

【Iran claims US and Israeli attacks on private ships and passenger vessels in the Persian Gulf】

【Iranian military claims to have hit an Israeli F-16 fighter jet】

Other noteworthy news includes:

【He Lifeng meets with multinational company executives】

According to CCTV News, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with representatives from HSBC, UBS, Louis Dreyfus, Siemens Healthineers, Schneider Electric, Rio Tinto, Prudential, Yinhua Securities, Standard Chartered, Shuzan Anuo, and Tencel at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse on the evening of the 21st. He stated that China’s economy is steady and improving, and during the 14th Five-Year Plan, China will continue to expand high-level opening-up and promote high-quality development, creating broader market opportunities for multinational companies. He welcomed increased investment from multinationals in China and deeper mutually beneficial cooperation. The representatives expressed confidence in China’s economy and willingness to continue deepening investment in China.

【Small and medium insurance companies reduce holdings due to solvency pressure? Several industry insiders say individual adjustments are minor and do not alter the overall increasing trend】

【Financial Law Draft Open for Public Consultation】

On March 20, the Ministry of Justice, People’s Bank of China, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, and State Administration of Foreign Exchange published the “Draft of the Financial Law of the People’s Republic of China” on their official websites for public comment. The draft states that the central bank, together with relevant government departments, will implement macroprudential regulation and management of the financial markets, with measures such as counter-cyclicality and cross-cycle adjustments as needed. It also emphasizes establishing a rapid response mechanism for financial market risks to address abnormal fluctuations, panic, and liquidity crises.

【Gold experiences its largest weekly decline in 43 years】

As of the close on Friday (March 20), spot gold fell 3.42% to $4,491.67 per ounce, down over 10% for the week; COMEX gold futures dropped 2.47% to $4,492 per ounce, down over 11% this week.

Spot silver declined 6.8% to $67.897 per ounce, with a weekly decline of over 15%; COMEX silver futures fell 4.78% to $67.810 per ounce, down over 16% for the week.

Company News

【Shanghai Stock Exchange accepts application for Yu Shu Technology’s Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO, aiming to raise 4.202 billion yuan】

【Xiechuang Data: No business cooperation with AMD】

Xiechuang Data stated on the interaction platform that the company and its subsidiaries have no business dealings with AMD. They warn against believing market rumors and have issued a formal statement clarifying and refuting false information circulating online. The company has engaged its longstanding legal counsel, Guangdong Xinda Law Firm, to conduct a comprehensive investigation into the false reports and will fully handle related rights protection to safeguard the interests of the company and all shareholders.

【Zijin Mining: 2025 net profit expected to grow 61.55%, plans to pay 3.8 yuan per 10 shares in dividends】

Zijin Mining announced that in 2025, it expects revenue of 349.079 billion yuan, up 14.96% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is projected at 51.777 billion yuan, up 61.55%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.8 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), subject to approval at the 2025 annual general meeting. During the reporting period, mineral production steadily increased, with gold output reaching 90 tons, copper 1.09 million tons, lithium carbonate equivalent 25,500 tons, zinc (lead) 400,000 tons, and silver 439 tons. Notably, gold production growth ranks among the top globally, copper production has exceeded one million tons for three consecutive years, and lithium projects have been commissioned for profit.

Looking ahead to next week’s key events:

March 23, Monday

• Huawei Spring All-Scenario New Product Launch (Shangjie brand release)

• Domestic refined oil prices will undergo the sixth adjustment of the year at 24:00. Institutions estimate that 92-octane gasoline will rise by about 1.6 yuan/liter next week, returning to the “9-yuan era.”

March 24, Tuesday

• Boao Asia Forum 2026 Annual Conference, March 24-27

• Jay Chou announces new album release press conference

March 25, Wednesday

• Zhongguancun Forum Annual Conference, March 25-29

• SEMICON China (Shanghai International Semiconductor Exhibition), March 25-27

March 26, Thursday

• 114th National Sugar and Alcohol Fair in Chengdu, March 26-28

March 27, Friday

• China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, March 27-29

(Source: Daily Economic News)