March nights in Jiangnan are not yet over,
Several times through wind and rain, glimpses of sunshine appear.

March in Jiangnan, nights endless; wind and rain reveal clear skies again

[Taogu Ba]

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In the lively spring of March, China’s A-shares are not performing as well as hoped. Here are some case analyses to soothe the mood… Starting from story backgrounds to trigger trading logic, from the retreat of old hot topics to the recognition cycle of new themes, from core negative feedback of previous themes to the birth of new nodes. No matter how the hype carriers change, the essence of speculation in China’s A-shares remains the same. Simplifying complexity helps see through the true nature!

1. Story Background: At the start of 2026, AI computing power and global data center construction continued to explode, fiber optic demand surged, upstream preform capacity was tight, prices nearly doubled in a month—reaching a seven-year high. Market demand was tight, Longfei Fiber, with its full industry chain advantage, saw both volume and price rise, orders flooded in, gross profit margins rebounded significantly, becoming the core beneficiary of this round of price hikes.

Hype route: Longfei Fiber - Hangdian Co. - Farsun

Led by the core trend of Longfei Fiber, fiber optic price increases actually began on January 26, 2026, with a main upward move. On February 27, the first main rise broke below the 5-day moving average and tested the 10-day line for stabilization. The next day, a rebound topped out, starting a correction. On March 9, it tested the 20-day line for stabilization and rebounded, but by March 13, it formed a long upper shadow, indicating a top. The K-line pattern showed a double-top M formation. During this period, Longdian Co. and Farsun, which had a cross-year rally, appeared. Details are shown below:

2. Story Background: In late February 2026, positive signals emerged from US-Iran negotiations. On February 28, the US-led coalition suddenly attacked Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and key officials and family members were all killed. Iran immediately launched a real retaliation, intensively bombing US Middle East bases and Israeli territory, and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Global energy supply chains suddenly tightened, leading to a surge in energy, chemical, and alternative energy sectors, with intense market speculation and volatility.

Hype route: Intercontinental Oil & Gas - Jinniu Chemical - Huadian Energy

In late February 2026, during US-Iran negotiations, Intercontinental Oil & Gas started a pre-positioned capital game on February 24, which collapsed after the attack on Iran on February 28. The conflict intensified over the weekend. On March 2, large orders accelerated, and Jinniu Chemical’s first limit-up appeared. On March 4, Intercontinental Oil & Gas reached a peak in the main upward wave with a high volume of shares. The next day, it retraced to the 5-day line. On March 9, it opened high and declined, failing to break the top, and on March 10, it hit the limit down, confirming a retreat. Meanwhile, during March 10-11, Jinniu Chemical separated from Intercontinental Oil & Gas, initiating two waves of main upward moves, along with Huadian Energy, which also started its main rise on March 10. On March 17, Jinniu Chemical opened low and rose, forming a top; on March 18, it hit the limit down again, breaking below the 5-day line; on March 19, it failed to rebound; on March 20, it hit the limit down again. Huadian Energy, however, retraced to the 5-day line on March 17 and then continued upward for three days, confirming its separation from chemical sectors. Details are shown below:

3. Story Background: The Two Sessions convened. On March 5, 2026, the State Council’s government work report explicitly listed energy-electrical synergy as a national-level new infrastructure project.

Hype route: Yunnan Energy Holdings - Shun Na Co. - Meili Yun

Inspiration and Reflection:

Attached is the ladder team analysis from last Friday, focusing on Huadian Energy as the core, with Huadian Liaoning as a supporting player. Energy substitution has become the only profitable theme as of this Friday. Based on the above case analyses, each core mini-cycle has an upper limit of about 100% gain. If counting as consecutive boards, then 5-7 boards form a cycle top.

5 boards: Shen Zhonghua A, Huadian Liaoning
3 boards: Shao Neng Co., Dashengda
2 boards: Dongfang Xinneng, Guo New Energy, Huadian Energy

Based on the above nodes, growth characteristics, and the internal relationships of subsequent补涨 (catch-up) and reverse推 (reverse inference), here are some questions for reflection:

1. What are the typical features of a core theme stock’s trend? What insights does this give you for holding stocks?

2. Do you recognize Huadian Energy as the leader of this energy substitution cycle? How did it rise to its current position?

3. How do you understand the role of Huadian Liaoning?

4. How do you understand the role of Shao Neng Co.?

5. What subtle changes have occurred between Shun Na Co. and Yunnan Energy Holdings?

6. Who do you think will be the next core stock for catch-up? Briefly explain your reasoning.

7. On which day (not specific date, but from the feedback perspective of certain stocks) do you think the next node will appear? Which theme is most likely to produce a new stock at that point?

There are no standard answers to these questions. Everyone’s market understanding varies, as does their perception of cycles and nodes. Those interested can review their expectations management and comparison ideas later.

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