How Changing Assumptions Are Reshaping The Graco (GGG) Story For Analysts And Investors

Simply Wall St

Sat, February 14, 2026 at 11:08 AM GMT+9 5 min read

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What Has Actually Changed in the Price Target

The updated fair value estimate for Graco has moved from US$93.44 to US$95.33 per share, with the discount rate adjusted only slightly from 8.29% to 8.30%. The headline shift in the price target therefore comes from relatively fine tuning rather than a complete reset of the story. Together, these tweaks line up with recent Street research, where higher targets sit alongside more cautious long term revenue growth assumptions, now at 5.56% instead of 6.84%. This shows a mix of confidence and restraint in how the outlook is being framed. If you want to keep on top of how this narrative evolves from here, stay tuned for ways to track future price target and fair value updates as they come through.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value Graco.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Several firms, including Seaport Research, RBC Capital and Baird, have lifted their price targets on Graco, which points to a more optimistic skew among the latest neutral and bullish views on the stock.

The tone of these target changes generally highlights what analysts see as solid execution and cost discipline, with Graco's ability to manage its operations viewed as a support for the updated fair value estimates rather than a concern.

Recent research also links higher targets to expectations around growth momentum, with analysts effectively rewarding the company for its track record of delivering on its plans and maintaining transparency with the market.

Seaport Research stands out with a US$10 price target increase, while Baird and RBC Capital have raised their targets by US$8 and US$3 respectively, which together put a bit more weight on an optimistic skew in sentiment.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Even as Seaport Research, RBC Capital and Baird raise their targets, some of the commentary includes reservations that a fair amount of upside may already be reflected in the share price, which can limit the room for further re rating.

Across these reports, analysts flag that valuation and near term risks remain important watchpoints, so the higher targets are not being framed as open ended optimism but rather as adjustments that still acknowledge possible bumps in execution or growth ahead.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

Story Continues  

NYSE:GGG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

What’s in the News

Graco issued earnings guidance for 2026 that calls for low single digit organic sales growth on a constant currency basis, and mid single digit sales growth when including acquisitions, giving investors an early look at how management is framing the next financial year.

The company declared a regular quarterly dividend of US$0.295 per common share, described as a 7.3% increase, payable on February 4, 2026 to shareholders of record on January 19, 2026, which signals ongoing cash returns to equity holders.

Graco's Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase plan on December 5, 2025, allowing the company to buy back up to 15,000,000 shares with no stated end date for the program, giving management additional flexibility in how it allocates capital over time.

How This Changes the Fair Value For Graco

Fair Value: the updated model fair value has moved from US$93.44 to US$95.33 per share, so the latest work points to a slightly higher central estimate.

Discount Rate: the discount rate has been adjusted only marginally, from 8.29% to 8.30%, which keeps the overall risk input effectively in the same ballpark.

Revenue Growth: assumed long term revenue growth is now 5.56% instead of 6.84%, which reflects more tempered sales expectations over the forecast horizon.

Net Profit Margin: the projected net profit margin has shifted from 24.04% to 24.71%, a modest change that indicates a slightly stronger earnings profile in the model.

Future P/E: the forward P/E multiple used in the model is now 29.6x compared with 27.5x previously, indicating that a higher valuation multiple on future earnings is being applied.

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect the story behind a company with the numbers in one place, bringing together your view on its business, forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, and an implied fair value. They sit inside the Community page, are easy to follow, and update automatically when fresh news or earnings land, so you can quickly compare Fair Value to the current share price and decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Graco to stay on top of how the story and fair value view progress over time:

How new products and the U.S. manufacturing footprint are framed in terms of market share and net margin assumptions in the Graco Narrative on Simply Wall St.

What the COROB integration, tariff impacts, acquisition spend, and share repurchases mean for future revenue, profitability, and the P/E used in the fair value work.

How changing inputs like revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and analyst price targets update the Narrative fair value so you can judge how it stacks up against the current price.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include GGG.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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