Institutions: The core of the current gold trend lies in the re-constraint of interest rate expectations due to rising energy prices

Odaily Planet Daily News: Cinda Futures points out that the core driver of gold’s recent trend is the upward movement of energy prices, which re-constraints interest rate expectations. As the Middle East conflict persists, crude oil prices remain high, with Brent crude futures previously stable above $100, significantly increasing market concerns about inflation stickiness. Against this backdrop, the market’s outlook on the inflation decline path has become more cautious, weakening expectations of rate cuts, which has led to a phase of dollar strengthening and put pressure on gold. Meanwhile, although recent employment data has been somewhat weak, inflation expectations driven by energy are offsetting this bullish factor, making gold’s financial attributes temporarily more bearish. On the policy front, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, but the key lies in the forward guidance on the interest rate path, especially Powell’s assessment of inflation and the impact of geopolitical conflicts, which will directly influence market expectations for subsequent easing measures. (Jin10)