Ground war coming? US military 2 "quasi-aircraft carriers" carrying thousands of soldiers as reinforcements, 82nd Airborne Division on standby!

The Israel-Iran conflict enters its fourth week, possibly facing another escalation.

On the evening of March 21, local time, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, during Operation “True Commitment 4” the 72nd wave, “Kader” and “Emad” missiles successfully shot down Israeli aircraft over central Iran, and launched attacks on targets in northern Israel, the core region, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet.

Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy, posted on social media that the Iranian navy used a large number of ballistic missiles and suicide drones to destroy facilities at the Minhad Air Force Base in the UAE and the Ali Salim Air Force Base in Kuwait, as well as hangars and fuel depots of the Israeli and American aircraft groups. He stated that previous attacks on Iranian islands originated from these bases.

Mainstream media reported on the 21st that Israel monitored Iran launching ballistic missiles toward southern Israel, while Hezbollah in Lebanon fired rockets toward northern Israel. Air raid sirens sounded in both southern and northern Israel, with no reports of casualties so far.

U.S. military significantly increases forces in the Middle East

Sources: Aiming to open the Strait of Hormuz

Potentially seize Halek Island to pressure Iran to open the strait

On the 20th, U.S. officials disclosed that three warships had been dispatched from the U.S. West Coast carrying the second Marine Expeditionary Force to the Middle East. Additionally, some units of the U.S. 82nd Airborne Division are on standby within the U.S.

According to U.S. media reports on the 20th, the amphibious assault ships “Brawler” and “Conestoga,” along with the “Portland” amphibious transport dock, departed from San Diego, California, heading to the Middle East. The fleet carried the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, with over 2,000 personnel.

Previously, the permanently stationed “Littoral” amphibious assault ship fleet in Japan had deployed another Marine expeditionary force to the Middle East.

Currently, the “Littoral” fleet has entered the Indian Ocean; the “Brawler” fleet will take about three weeks to cross the Pacific, then transit the Indian Ocean to waters near Iran. There are also reports that the U.S. is preparing to deploy some units of the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.

President Trump on the 20th stated he was not interested in a ceasefire with Iran.

President Trump: “We can talk, but I don’t want a ceasefire. You know, when you’re completely destroying the other side, what’s the point of a ceasefire? They have no navy, no air force, no equipment, no reconnaissance personnel, no air defense weapons, no radar—all levels of leadership have been eliminated. We have no intention of doing that (ceasefire).”

However, later that day, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. was “very close” to achieving its goals, including weakening or destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, defense industrial base, naval and air forces, and nuclear capacity, as well as protecting regional allies, and was considering gradually de-escalating military actions against Iran.

Reuters reporters noted that in two administrations (Trump’s), they have learned one thing: watch what he does, not what he says. He (Trump) is dispatching 5,000 Marines, expected to be deployed within weeks, and military actions are already escalating. All signs and military movements indicate the situation will become more difficult and intense.

On March 20, local time, U.S. officials announced that the U.S. military was sending three more ships and about 2,500 Marines to the Middle East. Previously, informed sources said the troop increase was to give President Trump more military options, including actions to “open” the Strait of Hormuz, which would require deploying air and naval forces along the Iranian coast.

Sources also disclosed that the Trump administration is considering deploying ground forces to the strategic oil-exporting island of Halek, aiming to seize the island as leverage to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Halek Island is located northwest of the Persian Gulf, about 20 kilometers from the Iranian coast, and is Iran’s largest oil export hub, with about 90% of Iran’s oil exported from there.

Iran: If U.S. forces seize the island, they will face “unprecedented retaliation”

Prepared to capture U.S. soldiers

Recently, Iranian military sources stated that if the U.S. launched a “military invasion” of Halek Island, Iran would face “unprecedented retaliation” since the Iran-Israel conflict.

Sources also said that creating instability in the Strait of Mand and the Red Sea is “one of the options the resistance front may take,” and that the U.S. would face a much more complicated situation.

Halek Island is a strategic Iranian coastal island with a port responsible for most of Iran’s oil exports. Previous reports indicated that the Trump administration was considering occupying or blockading Halek to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian analysts emphasize that they are ready to capture U.S. ground personnel. Sadr Hosseini, an Iranian analyst, pointed out that if the U.S. attacks Halek Island, Iran will not only capture U.S. soldiers but also seize some U.S. military bases in the area. He stressed that Iran has specific plans to capture American soldiers and deliver heavy blows.

Sadr Hosseini: “We are now even counting down daily, waiting for this (U.S. ground troop deployment) to happen. We have developed significant plans for this. Recently, there have been no captured personnel from the U.S., but our fighters are prepared and have made detailed plans.”

Trump proposed seizing Halek Island 38 years ago

U.S. experts: High risk of seizure, more dangerous subsequent situation

U.S. military experts have analyzed that there are three possible ways for the U.S. to seize Halek Island, but each path is fraught with danger. Even if the U.S. succeeds, the aftermath will bring at least two major headaches for Trump’s administration.

Multiple sources reveal that the U.S. is increasing forces in the Middle East, including amphibious assault ships and Marine units.

Experts believe that the U.S. is strengthening military power now possibly to “open” the Strait of Hormuz or to prepare for seizing Halek Island. They estimate that, including forces heading to the Middle East, the U.S. has about 50,000 troops in the region, covering multiple branches, including substantial logistics. However, the number of ground troops capable of executing an island seizure is limited. Still, the U.S. could assemble more ground forces, potentially over 10,000, enough to carry out an assault on Halek.

For decades, the U.S. has coveted Halek Island. Reports indicate that during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, President Carter considered bombing or seizing the island. In 1988, Trump, then a businessman, also proposed taking the island in his book “The Art of the Deal.”

Military experts say there are three main methods for the U.S. to seize Halek: amphibious assault, helicopter landing, and parachute drop, possibly combined. But all carry enormous risks. Halek is only about 25 km from Iran’s coast, and U.S. forces would be under constant fire from Iranian land-based artillery.

If choosing amphibious assault—landing from the sea—U.S. amphibious ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz would become prime targets for Iranian fire. Former Army officer Harrison Mann explained that Iran could lay mines in the waters around the strait and Halek, and use shore-based anti-ship missiles, drones, and boats to attack, making any landing highly vulnerable.

Helicopter landings could avoid anti-ship weapons but would still be targeted by Iranian drones, missiles, and artillery, and face threats from ground-based short-range air defenses. Additionally, U.S. Marine V-22 Ospreys and helicopters would need multiple trips to deploy enough troops, giving Iran time to calibrate their strikes.

Parachute drops are even more dangerous. Mann believes U.S. air superiority could suppress Iran’s remaining air defenses, but dispersed parachute landings risk missing the target zone, with soldiers potentially drowning or landing within Iranian-controlled areas. Although Trump’s government claims all Iranian military targets on the island have been destroyed, the current presence of Iranian forces remains uncertain.

Experts warn that even if the U.S. captures Halek, the subsequent situation could be even more perilous.

First, U.S. soldiers could become “living targets” on the island. Experts say that if U.S. forces seize the oil facilities and occupy the island, they could be subjected to heavy shelling or close combat. If they withdraw, it could resemble disastrous retreats like those from Somalia or Afghanistan. Mann states that for units ordered to seize the island, the operation might not be “suicide,” but could easily turn into a “hostage crisis.”

Second, the effectiveness of resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis would be limited. Halek is still hundreds of kilometers from the strait, and occupying it might not prevent Iran from attacking U.S. ships along the coast.

Third, it could force the U.S. to keep increasing troop deployments, making Middle East conflicts more complex and intense. If U.S. forces get trapped on the island, they might be compelled to escalate further, risking larger-scale ground wars.

For the Trump administration, the biggest problem with seizing Halek isn’t just military but domestic politics. There is significant controversy within the U.S. over such a high-risk operation.

Some hawks advocate for seizing the island, believing it would choke Iran’s economy and turn the tide of the conflict, echoing the “Venezuela operation” strategy. Opponents argue that such action would escalate the war and introduce greater uncertainties.

On one hand, destroying Iran’s oil facilities on the island would further damage oil supplies. Iran might retaliate with large-scale attacks on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure, causing severe energy market disruptions and economic strain on the U.S. The U.S. previously avoided targeting oil facilities during island strikes.

On the other hand, seizing, occupying, and defending the island could force the U.S. to continually deploy ground troops, dragging the U.S. into a “war quagmire.” This is an outcome both Trump’s government and many Americans strongly oppose. A recent poll by “Data for Progress” shows that 68% of Americans oppose any large-scale ground war against Iran. Democratic Senator Ed Markey warned that seizing Halek could trigger “a new crisis” with unpredictable consequences.

(Article source: Daily Economic News)