Morning ICU, afternoon KTV

Today’s market is in a process of bottoming out and rebounding. It continued to decline in the morning and then rose steadily in the afternoon. This kind of turnaround feels a bit abrupt, but today’s rally was without volume.

Looking at this chart, the key information is that the overall market needs to correct the excessive decline from yesterday. However, today’s upward movement did not see increased volume and faced resistance below key levels. This means it’s not yet absolutely safe, but the lows below are still valid support. If tomorrow can break above the resistance line, it would confirm that the bottoming and rebound have the momentum to continue upward. If not, there could be another wave of decline tomorrow, requiring volume to confirm. I’m not making a judgment now; I’ll keep observing. But it feels like the shakeout phase is almost over, as mentioned at noon. I won’t speculate on specific levels; it’s probably close enough to the bottom. Any surprises will be noted separately. [Taogu Ba]

Today, there are some good news in the market. One is that Iranian President Raisi has died. There had been rumors before, but repeated denials, and it was finally confirmed. This could mean that Iran’s ongoing conflicts are gradually coming to an end, which would boost global stock markets. The Korean stock market has risen even more dramatically, reaching about 5%.

Samsung and Hynix concept stocks also rose, and the market is returning to the right track of communication technology. Looking at the US and European markets tonight, they probably will be similar. Additionally, we have more imaginative news. https://www.tgb.cn/a/2qdf3ysDk1F, you can refer to this post.

It’s now confirmed that the China-US Paris talks have achieved significant results. For details, check previous posts. This is a current trillion-yuan project, and larger projects worth trillions or even tens of trillions are likely to emerge later. This could continue to stimulate A-shares. The significance of Trump’s visit to China is also related to this.

Following this news, the RMB exchange rate reacted randomly.

The basic logic has been explained before: the current upward trend is driven by the Fed’s rate cuts, which may lead to outflows of dollar assets, potentially bringing incremental funds into the big A-shares market. This has fueled a so-called bull market lasting a year and a half. But now, we no longer need to rely on Fed rate cuts; if US assets are directly invested into China, the imagination becomes broader. The previously expected range of 4380-4430 might not be the peak of this cycle.

Recently, I’ve emphasized that the future looks bright, but the present is very bad. To go up, the market needs to go down first. Those who understand this know it well; those who don’t, it’s useless to explain. The direction is set; how to go up is now up to the market. Currently, the market’s direction has shifted back to communication stocks, including $Zhongji Xuchuang (sz300308)$ and $Changfei Optical Fiber (sh601869)$, which are both strengthening.

Currently, Hong Kong’s Changfei Optical Fiber is also strong. This is why I said profits should be used to trade stocks—why not fully exit? Because some stocks may outperform expectations. For example, how did Zhongji Xuchuang achieve tenfold growth in a year? How much does Changfei Optical Fiber really have? Only heaven knows. I won’t predict; just watch their performance with profits.

Important US meetings are still ongoing, all major tech industry conferences. We’re observing the latest news, but there might be a switch in the communication line, such as CPO or liquid cooling, both of which could strengthen. These are mostly about adding computing power, which requires effective cooling. Air cooling may not suffice; liquid cooling is more reliable.

The logic has been explained; how it develops depends on the market. Today, liquid-cooled servers showed some movement. For example, $Inspur Information (sz000977)$ performed well today. In early March, it hit 57.77, which is a strong number in market language. The low yesterday was not broken, so today’s price confirms its safety. Of course, this doesn’t mean it will hit the limit-up tomorrow, but as a leader in liquid cooling servers, it has some value. Inspur can be compared to Cooler Master and will also appear at Nvidia’s conference. Many international giants cooperate with it, mainly for telecom companies and AI chip firms, holding over 700 liquid cooling patents. Notably, it repurchased and canceled shares last December, and current prices are at the company’s recognized low points, making it a good focus. Earnings are less relevant now; if the company is struggling, there’s no time for share buybacks and cancellations. Major shareholders’ holdings will definitely change in annual and quarterly reports.

That’s all for today. Please like, comment, and tip Cuibo. Thanks to @Tingmao, @Kongtang123, @SkyFly, @SangYuFeiWan, @OliviaJing, @LegendaryBlueStarKing, @HisYang, @FuniWang for tipping and urging.

Thanks to the three classmates for their encouragement. These reverse indicators should be watched more; once the posts that can’t turn into a real signal appear, it’s probably close to a buying point.