Gold Commentary: Geopolitical TACO Trading Resurfaces, Gold Price Experiences Massive Intraday Volatility

On March 9, COMEX gold initially fell then rose, with increased intraday volatility, closing at $5,148.7 per ounce, down 0.19%. The domestic SHFE gold night session traded sideways and fluctuated, closing at ¥1141.01 per gram, up 0.02%. As the US-Iran conflict escalates, concerns over a prolonged disruption of the global energy supply chain caused crude oil prices to surge, leading to a rapid decline in global risk assets, and impacting the precious metals market. However, the G7’s efforts to suppress oil price expectations and Trump’s statement last night that the US-Iran war could end soon—much faster than his initial estimate of 4 to 5 weeks—have eased market fears. Additionally, Trump mentioned that oil prices “haven’t risen sharply as he feared,” and the US is temporarily waiving some oil-related sanctions to ensure sufficient oil supply and lower prices. Market panic has largely dissipated, with the US dollar and crude oil prices falling sharply, and US stocks and gold showing some recovery. Currently, gold is once again at a crossroads, with the key being the final outcome of the US-Iran conflict. Rising oil prices could trigger inflation expectations, which are favorable for gold prices, but if inflation rises too high, Fed rate cuts and easing expectations may be further delayed, which is not beneficial for gold. The conflicting sentiments in gold trading reflect current disagreements, with short-term strategies emphasizing rhythm over direction. In an uncertain situation, caution is advised regarding high-level fluctuations in gold prices. (Everbright Futures)