Guangzhou and Shenzhen Real Estate "Mini Spring" Behind the Scenes: Second-hand Houses Become Main Force, New House Market Shows Polarization Trend

March has traditionally been the peak season for the real estate market, and the “Golden March and Silver April” reputation directly influences the market’s overall direction for the year.

Recently, the Guangzhou and Shenzhen housing markets have emerged from the low transaction volume during the Spring Festival holiday, with both viewing and transaction volumes rising in sync, and market warmth continuing to spread.

According to visits to some properties, conversations with real estate agents, and insights from multiple research institutions, the current “small spring” in Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s real estate markets has effectively arrived. At the same time, market logic has undergone a significant change: some popular “bargain listings” (properties priced significantly lower than similar properties in the same area and type, offering high cost-performance) are gradually disappearing, and the bargaining space for listed properties is shrinking.

Photo: Chen Ronghao / Daily Economic News

It is worth noting that both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are leading in the secondary housing market, becoming the main drivers of this warming “small spring.” Meanwhile, the new housing market shows a differentiated trend: Shenzhen’s new home supply has decreased year-over-year since the beginning of the year, while luxury homes in Guangzhou’s core areas remain hot, and first-time buyers are still relying on discounts to drive sales. In essence, the pattern between the primary and secondary markets has reversed, with structural changes on the supply side, making this “small spring” particularly distinctive.

Secondary Housing Leads the “Small Spring” Movement

In this round of Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s “small spring,” secondary housing is taking the lead, fundamentally rewriting market logic.

From data to firsthand experience, secondary housing is dominating the recovery.

Shenzhen’s secondary housing market was the first to ignite, becoming the core engine of this revival. According to monitoring by Leyoujia, after the Spring Festival, secondary housing contract volumes surged by 132% month-over-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2024. As of February 2026, the average transaction price for Shenzhen secondary residential properties has risen to 62,000 yuan per square meter.

Data from Beike Research Institute shows that from March 2 to 8, Shenzhen’s secondary housing contract volume increased by 118% month-over-month, with a single-day transaction volume on March 8 reaching nearly a year high, continuing to rise for two consecutive weeks.

Additionally, market sentiment is recovering in tandem. The latest monitoring data from Shenzhen Beike Research Institute indicates that in February, the number of secondary listings at partner agencies decreased by 3.3% year-over-year. Unreasonable sell-offs have significantly decreased, and the market is gradually entering a healthy cycle of “expectation strengthening—supply optimization—price stabilization.”

“Currently, high-quality school district homes and properties with low total prices and high rental yields are recovering most noticeably. For example, in our area, the Liyuan main campus school district homes, such as the 83-square-meter three-bedroom in Yuanling Garden, are seeing increased inquiries and transactions after the holiday, especially since they are linked to Liyuan main campus and Hongling Middle School,” said Liu Anying, a senior agent in Futian Yuanling area, on March 14.

Liu Anying mentioned that the speed of transactions for “bargain listings” in the secondary market has been compressed into a relatively short cycle, with some listings selling in less than a week. “For example, at Hailing Court in Futian, a 108-square-meter three-bedroom, the owner’s listed price is generally above 8.2 million yuan, but some owners are eager to sell, and a listing at 7.55 million yuan can be sold in about a week,” she said.

Similar phenomena are also present in Luohu. After an increase in transaction volume, listing owners’ attitudes have stabilized, and they are no longer in a rush to sell, which has significantly reduced bargaining space.

For example, a two-bedroom unit of 47.84 square meters in Cuizhu Garden, Luohu, which the reporter visited at the end of last year, was previously listed at 2.45 million yuan. An agent indicated that the lowest price could be around 2.3 million yuan. However, in March this year, the agent told the reporter that the lowest asking price was 2.37 million yuan.

The secondary market in Guangzhou has also experienced a strong rebound.

Data from Beike shows that on March 8, Guangzhou’s secondary housing transactions reached 247 units in a single day, up 25.4% from the previous period; for the week of March 2-8, the total was 849 units, an 118.8% increase. Post-holiday demand has been released in full, with continued increases in viewing numbers at agencies. The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association’s March manager index rose to 71.78, indicating strong confidence in the “small spring.”

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen markets show the core feature of “secondary housing outperforming new homes.” The number of new secondary listings has decreased year-over-year, market sentiment continues to improve, and this has further stimulated replacement demand (“selling old and buying new”), gradually smoothing the market cycle.

Xiao Xiaoping, director of Beike Research Institute in Shenzhen, believes that this rebound is not a short-term policy-driven spike but a resonance of multiple factors: policy optimization, confidence restoration, and concentrated release of self-occupancy demand. The sustained volume increase in secondary housing and the simultaneous rise in new housing make this “small spring” more solid.

Structural Trends in the New Housing Market

Unlike the widespread enthusiasm in the secondary market, the new housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not experienced a general rise but is characterized by a typical “structural trend.”

For example, Guangzhou’s luxury market has repeatedly broken transaction records, boosting nearby new housing viewing enthusiasm. In February, Guangzhou Tianhe Ma Chang land was sold for 23.604 billion yuan at a premium rate of 26.6%, with a residential land price of about 85,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for Guangzhou land prices.

On March 2, a 670-square-meter top-floor duplex in Poly Yuexi Bay, Zhujiang New Town, was sold for 187 million yuan, with a unit price of about 280,000 yuan per square meter, breaking the local record for top-tier luxury homes. On March 9, five units in Galaxy Bay Peninsula No. 5, totaling 7.187 billion yuan, were sold in a single day, reflecting unprecedented demand for luxury homes in the core area.

In contrast, the primary market for affordable new homes in Guangzhou shows a clear “price reduction to increase volume” trend.

Real estate agent Luo Jiamin told reporters that many first-time buyer projects in Guangzhou are now using discounts and special offers to attract buyers. “Without discounts, it’s hard to sell,” she said.

“For example, the pre-sale price of the Huangpu Galaxy Bay Mountain raw units has been reduced to starting at 19,000 yuan per square meter, with three options—raw, simplified, and luxury finishes—to attract buyers. The limited-time discount at Lihua New World Tianfu is directly 14% off, with prices as low as 38,000 yuan per square meter,” Luo added. “The market is very pragmatic now. If you don’t offer a fixed price or real discounts, even with many viewers, sales will be difficult.”

According to Zhongyuan Research’s data, as of the end of February 2026, Guangzhou’s narrow inventory was 14.164 million square meters, a slight decrease of 13,000 square meters from January. Due to reduced new supply in key areas in February, the market mainly absorbed existing stock, with inventory decreasing for four consecutive months.

In Shenzhen, since 2026, there has been a noticeable slowdown in new project launches. According to Midland Realty, only nine residential projects obtained pre-sale permits this year, well below the 12 projects in the same period last year.

The slower pace of new project launches has prevented the formation of large-scale supply, leading to a market where core areas see volume growth and stable prices, while first-time buyer areas see price-driven volume increases—creating a structural recovery pattern.

According to Centaline Property data, as of March 12, Shenzhen’s total transaction volume for commercial residential properties was 964 units, with 1,703 secondary units transferred.

Although new home transactions in Shenzhen are weaker than secondary ones, the reporter observed that since March, many projects have released hot-selling posters, such as Longhua HongRongYuan GuanCheng selling 41 units on March 7-8, Ocean City Chengming Garden selling 39 units the week before, and China State Construction Pengchen Yunzhu selling 32 units in one week.

“With high-quality land parcels in core cities gradually coming to market in 2025, and some developers increasing promotional efforts, market demand is expected to gradually release in March. The ‘small spring’ in core cities remains promising,” said Zhongzhi Research Institute.