OCBC: U.S.-Iran Conflict Shows No Signs of Easing, Oil Prices Expected to Remain Above $100 per Barrel

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-18T05:25:54+00:00

OCBC analysts point out that due to the lack of signs of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel and may struggle to fall back to $70 before 2026. Constrained navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has led to tight crude supply, forcing Gulf oil-producing nations to reduce output, with risks rising.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-18 05:25:54

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Investing.com - OCBC analysts stated in a report that, due to the almost no signs of easing in the US-Iran conflict, oil prices may remain above $100 per barrel in the near term.

The bank said that the conflict has entered its third week without credible diplomatic breakthroughs, leading to severe restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing tension in the global crude oil market.

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OCBC analysts expect Brent crude oil prices to stay around $100 per barrel until mid-2026, a significant upward revision from the previous forecast of around $70. As supply disruptions gradually ease, prices are expected to fall back to around $70 by early 2027.

OCBC commodities strategist said, “Ongoing shipping paralysis is forcing Gulf oil producers to cut output, increasing the risk that temporary disruptions could evolve into more persistent supply losses.”

Due to heightened security risks, oil tanker traffic through the strait has slowed to a trickle, and this critical passage, which accounts for about one-fifth of global oil consumption, has effectively stalled.

Although some vessels have resumed limited transit after signals of inspections in Iran and potential releases of stockpiles by the International Energy Agency, overall flow remains well below normal levels.

OCBC stated that mitigation measures—including alternative pipeline routes, strategic reserve releases, and continued Iranian exports—could offset up to 10 million barrels per day of supply shortfalls, but significant supply gaps would remain in the case of prolonged disruptions.

The bank added that the oil market is currently approaching a “moderately severe” supply shock scenario, and if tensions persist, risks will further tilt to the upside.

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