Kalshi issued a $1 billion free lottery ticket, remember to go scratch it.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Early morning on March 17, prediction market Kalshi announced on X that it will follow the example of Warren Buffett and launch the “Perfect Bracket Challenge” for the upcoming NCAA “March Madness” tournament — users who predict all match outcomes perfectly will win a super grand prize of $1 billion.

“March Madness”: America’s hottest basketball event

“March Madness” refers to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament held every March by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). Since the event typically starts in March, uses single-elimination format, has a dense schedule, and fierce competition, it is called “March Madness.”

According to the confirmed schedule announced yesterday, the 2026 “March Madness” will officially start on March 18 (tomorrow) Beijing time. The 68 college teams that qualify through months of regular-season battles will compete for the championship. The first round, called the “First Four,” will see 8 teams compete, with 4 eliminated, leaving 64 teams to advance through five rounds of single-elimination matches (Round of 64 → Round of 32 → Sweet 16 → Elite 8 → Final Four → Championship) to determine the winner.

As the most watched college basketball event in the U.S., compared to the NBA, which is club-based, NCAA often fosters a stronger “home team” identity among the public. During “March Madness,” students, alumni, and local communities spontaneously support their schools. Because of this, the nationwide participation atmosphere often even surpasses the NBA Finals in popularity.

From a competitive perspective, although college players generally cannot match professional players in overall strength, the uniqueness of “March Madness” lies in the fact that most participants have a very limited window — usually only 1 to 4 years — and top talents often enter the NBA after their freshman season. This fleeting opportunity makes each game more urgent — once on the court, almost everyone plays with all-out effort.

Meanwhile, 2026 is widely regarded as a big year for NBA drafts, further increasing the event’s attention. Players like Kansas’ Darrin Peterson, BYU’s AJ Dybans, and Duke’s Cameron Buzer (son of Carlos Buzer, Yao Ming’s rival) are seen as rare talents in recent years, with potential to compete for next year’s NBA No. 1 pick. The direct rivalry among these “future stars” adds a layer of forward-looking anticipation about the NBA landscape beyond just entertainment.

Traffic Explosion, Prediction Markets Can’t Miss

During “March Madness,” predicting game results by filling out brackets via sports betting services has long been a popular American tradition. How can specialized prediction markets miss this opportunity?

Currently, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have launched prediction events related to “March Madness.” Polymarket has even included it among the first trial paid sports events, seemingly preparing to profit from the upcoming hype.

Polymarket’s real-time odds show that the top four favorites for the “March Madness” championship are the No. 1 seeds from the four major regions:

• Duke University, with top NBA prospect Cameron Buzer, ranks first at 21%;
• University of Michigan, second at 19%;
• University of Arizona, third at 17%;
• Defending champion University of Florida, fourth at 11%.

On the other hand, Kalshi announced this morning a “bombshell” activity mimicking Buffett’s challenge, offering a $1 billion prize. All users can submit free predictions; those who predict all match outcomes perfectly will share the $1 billion. If no one succeeds, Kalshi will award the best predictor $1 million and allocate another $1 million to charity.

Notably, Kalshi has also brought NBA star Devin Booker on board to promote the event. In 2014, Booker’s Kentucky team went undefeated 31-0 in the regular season, was favored to win the national championship, but lost in the semifinals 64-71 to Wisconsin. Booker entered the NBA the following year, leaving that regret behind.

Buffett’s 12-year bounty, yet no one has claimed the prize

The reason for mentioning Kalshi’s big prize mimicking Buffett is that Buffett set up a similar challenge back in 2014 — employees of Berkshire Hathaway could win $1 billion if they guessed all game results correctly, paid out over 40 years (or a one-time $500 million payout).

However, due to the extreme difficulty of perfect prediction, no one has ever claimed it. Buffett later lowered the difficulty (and the reward) multiple times, until last year when an anonymous employee from Berkshire’s aviation training company FlightSafety International correctly predicted 31 of 32 first-round results, winning a reduced million-dollar prize.

How hard is perfect prediction? The industry’s most famous figure estimates the odds as “1 in 9.2 quintillion,” or 9.2 followed by 18 zeros. This is based on the math: assuming each game has a 50/50 chance (completely random), and excluding the first-round play-in games, there are 63 matches in total. The total possible outcomes are 2^63, which equals 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. If all these outcomes were written on paper, the paper would weigh about 180 trillion tons — the weight of 500 million Empire State Buildings.

Feeling impossible? No worries, I’ll help you significantly increase your chances!

Kalshi CEO TareK Mansour said this morning that the probability of a perfect prediction is about “1 in 120 billion,” or 1/120,000,000,000. The difference from the industry estimate (1 in 9.2 quintillion) is because this calculation is based on a more realistic model — sports matches are not 50/50; stronger teams tend to win more often. After weighting historical win rates and odds, academic and statistical estimates place the probability of perfect prediction in the range of “1/10^11 to 1/10^13,” with “1 in 120 billion” falling within this range.

Even at “1 in 120 billion,” the chance is nearly zero. Clearly, Kalshi is playing the same probability game as Buffett, believing no one will win the $1 billion.

Community Ready, AI Could Be the Key to Breakthrough

After Kalshi announced the big prize, it immediately sparked widespread discussion on social media — after all, prediction costs nothing, what if someone hits it?

Many users now believe that AI could be the key to cracking the challenge. Overseas KOL Chase Passive Income on X said he would spend $50 million on data processing, enabling countless AI agents to create accounts and fill out all possible brackets — this could be “the easiest way to earn that $1 billion.”

Will the seemingly unsolvable probability puzzle continue? Can AI create miracles? No one knows the answer before the “March Madness” national champion is crowned.

As spectators, besides waiting to watch the games and enjoy the spectacle, don’t forget to go to Kalshi and fill out your own dream bracket.