Prices go down and then go up—that's called a shakeout‼️

Prices fall again and then drop—that's called a dump‼️
In the financial markets, the most common question among retail investors is:
Is this a shakeout or is the big player selling off?
But the harsh reality is—
Many times, it’s the actions of retail investors themselves that determine the market trend.
1. What is a dump?
A dump essentially means the big player wants to sell their holdings to the market.
If given a choice, the big player will definitely prefer to sell at high levels.
Because the higher the position, the greater the profit.
But here’s the problem—
To sell at high levels, they can’t let the price skyrocket.
A sharp increase requires cost.
The big players aren’t charities; they won’t spend money to push the price up while secretly selling their holdings.
So you see this phenomenon:
• Trading volume is significant
• Price rises very slowly
• Or long-term sideways movement
This is often not a shakeout but a high-level turnover.
Especially after a sideways period followed by a decline,
Most of the time, it’s not a shakeout but a trend reversal after the dump.
Characteristics of a dump:
1. Intermittent small consolidations
Prices fall for a while, then sideways, then fall again
These consolidations aren’t big players absorbing orders
They are “catching the bag” zones prepared for retail investors to buy in
2. The downtrend gradually forms
It’s not a single sharp drop
But a series of stops and starts, with the center of gravity continuously shifting downward
3. Declines with decreasing volume, rebounds with increasing volume
The downward trend shrinks in volume
But each rebound is accompanied by a large volume spike
Many think that’s new funds entering,
But it’s often a coordinated push-up—
It looks like a relay of buyers,
But in reality, it’s a push-and-retract strategy,
Avoiding a heavy smash and selling chips cheaply.
When the trend truly changes,
The big players won’t even bother to draw patterns anymore.
2. What is a shakeout?
The goal of a shakeout isn’t to sell holdings,
But to shake out the chips from retail investors.
The core feature of a shakeout is only one—
The main trend remains upward.
Features of a shakeout:
1. Wide range of oscillation
Sometimes the decline is even sharper than a dump
But rebounds are very elastic
Because the purpose of a shakeout is to create panic,
Force retail investors to cut losses, then push the price higher.
2. Usually doesn’t stay sideways for long
Because big players are constantly suppressing—absorbing—then pushing higher
If it stays sideways for too long, retail investors might just give up and do nothing.
3. Rarely breaks key levels
Medium- and long-term moving averages remain upward
The trend structure isn’t broken
4. Volume is more evenly distributed
During a shakeout, volume may decrease
But there won’t be sudden large fluctuations
After the shakeout ends and the price rises,
Volume tends to be more moderate.
Because the chips are already concentrated with the big players,
No need for frantic matching.
3. The fundamental difference between a shakeout and a dump
A shakeout aims to gather chips.
A dump aims to unload chips.
One is collecting.
The other is distributing.
Different purposes, different market behaviors.
Candlestick charts can deceive you.
Trading volume is hard to fake.
Trend is even harder to deceive.
An upward trend indicates a shakeout.
A downward trend indicates a dump.
4. What should retail investors do?
Many people like to predict what the big players will do.
But the problem is—
Your prediction accuracy is definitely below 50%.
And big players never gamble with individual retail investors,
They bet against the majority of retail investors.
If many retail investors don’t hand over their chips,
Big players will find other ways to force you to do so.
Until the big players achieve their goal,
The market won’t easily start moving.
So for retail investors:
Whether it’s a shakeout or a dump,
The best approach is—avoid participating during the loss-making phases.
If the shakeout ends,
and the price breaks out again with volume,
it shows the big players are aiming high.
If after a decline the trend is confirmed,
just exit accordingly.
Don’t fight against the trend.
Don’t try to guess the top or bottom.
Don’t assume you’re smarter than the big players.
In the crypto market,
The fewer predictions you make, the less you lose.
Learn to follow the trend,
It’s far more important than trying to understand what the big players are thinking.
@TermMaxFi