#当前行情抄底还是观望？ Stay patient amidst divergence and accumulate ammunition during the bottoming process

The core characteristic of the current market is highly consensus pessimism, but institutional views rarely diverge. While everyone is discussing "how much further will it fall," the market may not be far from the mid-term bottom — but "not far" does not mean "already reached," nor does it mean "immediate reversal."

Short-term Outlook
The market will continue to oscillate within a narrow range, waiting for clear macro or technical catalysts.

Bitcoin: Key observation range is $66,000 - $67,800. Focus on the support at $66,000. If volume confirms a steady hold above $67,500, it could target $68,800; if it effectively breaks below $66,000, the next support is in the $63,000-$64,000 zone.
Ethereum: Core range is $1,920 - $2,020. Focus on the support at $1,950. Mainly weak correlation; a breakout requires Bitcoin to cooperate. Core ideas and suggestions:
1. Reduce trading frequency, adopt a wait-and-see approach: Currently, the market is characterized by high volatility and low trend, making frequent trading prone to both longs and shorts getting caught. The safest strategy is to reduce positions and minimize operations, letting the market itself reveal a clear breakout direction. For most investors, waiting on the sidelines is the best action.
2. Respect the divergence between Saylor and Burry, but do not pick sides: The opposing views of these two legends indicate that the battle between bulls and bears in this price zone has entered a heated phase. There’s no need to rush to "pick a side"; instead, let the market give the answer. If Saylor is correct, volume needs to break through $75,000 to confirm a reversal; if Burry is correct, losing $63,000 will be a clear exit signal.
3. Focus on right-side signals, abandon left-side guesses:
Don’t try to "bottom fish" at the most precise point. The true bottom requires a series of right-side signals for confirmation, such as: daily chart volume confirming a bottom reversal candlestick pattern; price volume breaking through the downtrend line; or the Fear & Greed Index steadily rising from the "Extreme Fear" zone.
4. Long-term perspective: Extend the cycle and downplay volatility: If you believe in the long-term value of blockchain technology, then the current downturn is precisely a window to accumulate cheap chips. There’s no need to chase the absolute bottom but adopt a phased, small, long-term dollar-cost averaging strategy. Ethereum’s "narrative vacuum period" will eventually be filled with new narratives—improvements in privacy features, institutional capital adaptation, all of which could become catalysts for the next market cycle.

The market bottom is never a single point but a zone. Within this zone, panic and hope intertwine, and both selling and accumulation coexist. What truly determines long-term returns is not whether you can buy at the lowest point with precision, but whether, in the darkest hour before dawn, you are still present and still holding bullets. Patience is the most scarce trait for survival in this market; and opportunity always favors those who remain calm and observant when no one is paying attention.