Metso Oyj (HLSE:METSO) Valuation Check After Nouveau Monde Graphite Phase 2 Equipment Agreement

Simply Wall St

Thu, February 19, 2026 at 11:17 AM GMT+9 3 min read

In this article:

OUKPF

+85.90%

OUKPY

+0.83%

NMG

-1.82%

HG=F

-0.43%

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Metso Oyj (HLSE:METSO) has drawn fresh attention after Nouveau Monde Graphite moved to finalize an agreement for Metso to supply key processing equipment to the Phase 2 Matawinie graphite mine in Canada.

See our latest analysis for Metso Oyj.

Metso’s agreement linked to NMG’s Phase 2 project comes on the heels of its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, a proposed €0.40 per share dividend for 2025, and leadership changes. The shares at €16.555 show a 22.04% 90-day share price return and a 57.75% 1-year total shareholder return, which points to building momentum rather than fading interest.

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With the shares up strongly over 1 year, trading just below the €16.71 analyst target and sitting on an intrinsic value estimate at a 17.69% discount, you have to ask: is there still an entry point here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 5% Overvalued

Metso Oyj’s most followed narrative puts fair value at €15.76, slightly below the latest €16.56 close. This frames the current price as a modest premium.

Bullish analysts see the higher price target as better aligned with refreshed assumptions on revenue growth and profit margins, which feed directly into their cash flow and valuation models. They point to the current P/E assumptions as reasonable in the context of Metso Oyj’s earnings profile, arguing that the fair value of €15.76 reflects what they view as balanced expectations rather than aggressive optimism.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue runway and margin profile underpins that fair value, and which future earnings multiple ties it all together? The full narrative lays out those moving parts in detail, including how long these assumptions are expected to hold.

Result: Fair Value of €15.76 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to keep an eye on execution risks such as a weaker services mix and ongoing ERP related costs, which could pressure margins and cash flow.

Find out about the key risks to this Metso Oyj narrative.

Another View: Cash Flows Point To Undervaluation

While the popular narrative frames Metso Oyj as 5% overvalued at a fair value of €15.76, our DCF model presents a different perspective. On that view, the shares trade about 17.7% below an estimated future cash flow value of €20.11. This raises a simple question: which signal do you trust more, earnings multiples or cash flows?

Story Continues

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

METSO Discounted Cash Flow as of Feb 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Metso Oyj for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 223 high-quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match — so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With mixed signals around value and risk, it is worth checking the numbers yourself and forming a clear view sooner rather than later. To see what the market is already excited about, take a look at the 2 key rewards.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not c