Is It Different This Time? U.S. Military "Earliest Strike on Iran This Weekend," How Will Oil Prices React?

On Wednesday, tensions between the U.S. and Iran suddenly escalated, driving a sharp increase in oil prices. As the U.S. military assembled its largest aerial force since the Iraq War in 2003, the market faced not the quick 25-minute “Midnight Hammer” operation of last year, but a potential military action that could last days or even weeks.

According to CCTV News, sources revealed that the U.S. military is prepared to launch a military strike against Iran as early as this weekend, but President Trump has not yet made a final decision. The sources said the White House has been informed that, following a significant troop buildup in the Middle East in recent days, the military is ready to strike over the weekend. Xinhua reported on February 18 that there are currently no signs of breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, while increasing evidence suggests that a U.S. military operation against Iran is “imminent.”

WTI crude oil rose 5% intraday on Wednesday, reaching $65.04 per barrel. Meanwhile, the market is evaluating various scenarios of oil price shocks: from a disruption of 1.6 million barrels per day of Iranian exports pushing prices up by $10-12, to a blockade of 18 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf exports potentially driving prices above $130, a record high.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran are “still far apart” on certain issues. Vice President JD Vance previously said that while some progress was made in Geneva negotiations, Iran failed to meet the “red lines” set by Trump. Leavitt said Iran is expected to respond to U.S. concerns in the coming weeks, “diplomacy is always his first choice, and Iran’s wise course is to reach an agreement with President Trump.”

U.S. assembles largest aerial force in the Middle East since 2003, with operations possibly lasting weeks

According to reports citing sources, the U.S. and Israel are likely to conduct joint operations, which will be much larger than the “12th War” in June last year, posing a more “existential threat” to Iran and having far-reaching regional impacts. In June 2025, the White House set a two-week window for Trump to decide whether to continue negotiations or launch airstrikes. Three days later, he launched the “Midnight Hammer” operation, which lasted only 25 minutes, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Media reports indicate that the U.S. is dispatching a large number of fighter jets and support aircraft to the Middle East, assembling the largest aerial force in the region since the Iraq War in 2003. Over the past few days, the U.S. has continuously deployed advanced F-35 and F-22 fighters, with a second carrier strike group equipped with attack aircraft and electronic warfare planes en route. Command and control aircraft critical for large-scale air operations are also being mobilized, and key air defense systems have been deployed in recent weeks.

According to U.S. officials, the new operational campaign could last from days to weeks. Former Pentagon officials and Atlantic Council researcher Alex Plitsas said that the current U.S. force buildup “is unprecedented in scale,” and such a level of military mobilization has not been seen in decades.

“We have assembled an unprecedented scale and combination of land-based attack aircraft, command and control systems, and sea-based platforms,” Plitsas said. “We haven’t seen such a military buildup in this region in many years.”

Media reports state that the deployment includes carrier strike groups, land-based aircraft, aerial refueling tankers, and command and control assets, allowing Trump to choose to conduct sustained air and sea operations without deploying U.S. ground forces. Sources say that if an operation occurs, “it will be a prolonged campaign lasting several weeks.”

Targets could span multiple levels—from targeted strikes on weapons facilities and mid-level officials to potentially toppling existing regimes through “decapitation” operations. The primary goal is to destroy Iran’s missiles, launchers, drones, and drone factories to prevent retaliatory strikes against U.S. and Israeli forces.

Two-week window reappears

The timeline is closely linked to military deployments. The second aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, is en route to the region. Leavitt said Wednesday that Iran is expected to provide more details in the “coming weeks.” Military experts predict that **it will take about two weeks for the USS Gerald R. Ford to arr