The panic index is at 12 and has been fluctuating between 5–15 for half a month. Should you start building a position?

First, this situation historically falls into the category of: Extreme sentiment at a freezing point.

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1. What periods in history have seen the index at 5–15?
This range typically only occurs during:
① Black swan / systemic collapse phases
For example:
• March 2020 pandemic crash (BTC dropped to 3800)
• 2022 LUNA collapse
• 2022 FTX meltdown
• End of 2022 bear market bottom area
During these times, the index remains around 10 for a long time.
Characteristics are:
✔ Extremely pessimistic news
✔ Social media full of “Crypto is over”
✔ Large retail investors cutting losses
✔ Increased trading volume
✔ Institutions quietly accumulating
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2. But pay attention to a key point:
Extreme panic ≠ immediate rebound.
Historically, two common trends:
Scenario A: V-shaped reversal
Index very low → Rapid rebound → Big market move starts
Scenario B: Bottom grinding
Index very low → Sideways for several months → Continued decline → New lows
For example, the end of 2022 was a prolonged grind.
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3. What does a continuous half-month range of 5–15 indicate?
This is more important than a “single-day spike.”
It represents:
• The market has become numb
• Short-seller sentiment is exhausted
• Selling pressure is gradually waning
• Panic has become the norm
This often occurs in the mid-to-late bear market, not at the very beginning of a crash.
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4. Should you build a position?
I’ll give you a professional-level answer, not just a simple “buy.”
If you are a long-term investor (more than 1 year):
👉 This is historically a high-probability zone for phased accumulation.
But you must:
• Buy in tranches (don’t go all-in at once)
• Keep some cash reserve
• Accept the possibility of another 20–30% drop
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If you are short-term/trading or using leverage:
👉 Not enough
You also need to confirm:
• Is there volume-driven support?
• Are there bullish divergences?
• Is macro liquidity improving?
Otherwise, the low index might just be a consolidation before further decline.
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5. From a probability perspective:
Historical statistics roughly show:
When the index ≤15 and persists for over 10 days:
• The probability of rising in the next 6–12 months > 65%
• But the probability of further decline within the next month still exists
In other words:
Short-term gains are not guaranteed
Mid-to-long-term success rate is significantly higher.
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6. What should you do?
My recommendations:
① Enter the market in three tranches
② Keep 30–40% of your capital in reserve
③ Avoid high leverage
④ Don’t try to predict the bottom; focus on probability management
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7. Let me ask you a key question:
Is the current low panic index due to:
• Tightening macro liquidity?
• Regulatory negative news?
• A major exchange collapse?
• Or just a price correction?
If it’s systemic risk → Be more cautious
If it’s just excessive sentiment → Higher success rate
Conclusion:
12 is a historical bottom-level zone.
You can start building positions in tranches.
But avoid emotional “all-in bottom-fishing.”