Corn Market Faces Headwinds Amid Policy Shifts and Export Weakness

The corn market is under pressure as traders digest a confluence of factors weighing on prices. Corn futures are declining across the board, with losses ranging from 2 to 3 1/4 cents at midday trading. The national average cash corn price has fallen 2 3/4 cents to $3.91 1/2, reflecting broader weakness in the commodity complex. Crude oil prices dropped $3.48 per barrel, while the US dollar index strengthened by $0.586, both factors contributing to headwinds for corn and other agricultural commodities.

Export Inspections Reveal Slowdown in U.S. Corn Shipments

Recent export inspection data tells a story of weakening demand for American corn. The latest report showed just 1.136 MMT (44.74 million bushels) of corn shipped in the most recent week, representing a significant 9.88% decline compared to the prior week. The year-over-year comparison is even more striking, with current shipments sitting 26.55% below the same period last year, suggesting structural shifts in global demand patterns.

Japan emerged as the largest single buyer of U.S. corn, importing 444,439 MT, followed by Mexico with 260,227 MT and Colombia with 147,478 MT. Despite the weekly weakness, the marketing year cumulative total tells a different story: 32.611 MMT (1.284 billion bushels) of corn has been shipped since September, still running 49.86% ahead of the same period a year ago. This suggests front-loading of exports earlier in the season may be moderating current weekly flows.

Trump-Modi Call Signals Potential Support for U.S. Corn and Agricultural Products

A significant development emerged just prior to midday when President Trump posted on Truth Social that his call with India’s President Modi went well. The discussion reportedly resulted in the U.S. lowering tariffs on India from 25% to 18%, while India agreed to purchase over $500 billion in U.S. energy, technology, agricultural, coal and other products. Historically, India has ranked among the top 3 to 4 buyers of U.S. ethanol, making this tariff reduction potentially favorable for American corn and corn-derived products in the medium term, though immediate price impact remained limited.

Managed Money Pullback and Brazilian Supply Pressuring Corn Futures

Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC provided insight into speculative positioning in recent weeks. During the week ending January 27, managed money speculators trimmed their net short position in corn futures and options by 9,274 contracts, primarily through new long positions. The net short position stood at 72,050 contracts. Meanwhile, commercial traders adjusted their stance, with their net short position increasing by 17,381 contracts to 187,342 contracts, suggesting commercial hedging activity remains active.

On the supply front, Brazilian corn production metrics are garnering market attention. AgRural estimates that the first Brazilian corn crop is just 10% harvested, lagging the 14% pace from the same period last year. The second crop planting is further along at 13%, running 4 percentage points ahead of the prior year’s pace. StoneX boosted its production estimates for Brazil’s first corn crop to 26.59 MMT (up 610,000 MT from their previous estimate) and raised the second crop projection to 106.37 MMT (560,000 MT increase), indicating confidence in substantial Brazilian production that could pressure global corn prices.

Current Corn Futures Prices Under Pressure

The March 2026 corn contract is trading at $4.25, down 3 1/4 cents from previous levels. Nearby cash corn remains at $3.91 1/2, reflecting the 2 3/4 cent decline noted earlier. Looking further out, May 2026 corn is at $4.32 1/2 (down 3 1/4 cents), while July 2026 corn is trading at $4.39 (down 3 cents). The combination of export weakness, strong dollar headwinds, and expectations of ample global corn supplies suggests the near-term bias remains tilted toward continued pressure on prices, despite the potential long-term support from improved U.S.-India trade relations.