$SPGI

S&P Global (SPGI) delivered a mixed Q4 2025 print and an underwhelming 2026 outlook. The stock sold off sharply after the release due to weaker profitability guidance and Q4 earnings coming in below expectations. Management guided FY2026 EPS to $19.40–$19.65, well below the Street consensus of $19.96. This widened investor concerns that growth momentum is slowing and margin pressure may persist.
In Q4, the company reported adjusted EPS of $4.30, missing the $4.34 analyst expectation by $0.04. On the other hand, total revenue rose 9.2% Y/Y to $3.92B, beating the $3.91B estimate by $10M. Subscription-based product revenue grew 8%, supporting the overall revenue trajectory. By segment, Market Intelligence revenue increased to $1.26B. The Ratings unit generated $1.19B of revenue, up year over year but down sequentially. The Indices segment delivered a strong $498M, while the Energy unit contributed $576M. The Mobility segment produced $444M, growing versus the prior year. However, total expenses increased to $2.51B (vs. $2.33B last year), adding pressure on net profitability.
For 2026, management targets 6.0%–8.0% organic constant-currency revenue growth. According to the documents, the strongest growth is expected to come from Indices at 10%–12%. Mobility is guided at 7.5%–9%, Market Intelligence and Energy at 5.5%–7%, and Ratings at a more modest 4%–7%. Strategically, the most important development is the planned Mobility spin-off, expected to be completed mid-2026. CEO Martina Cheung and CFO Eric Aboaf said GAAP guidance will be updated after the separation. The goal is that, once Mobility is separated, the company can sharpen focus on its core financial data and ratings businesses and improve operating efficiency