Corn Prices Slip Lower as Dollar Strength Pressures Grain Markets

The corn market experienced notable weakness in recent trading sessions, with futures contracts slipping significantly from their midday peaks. March corn contracts declined 2¼ cents during the week, while the national cash corn average fell 2 cents to settle at $3.93¼. This downward pressure reflects broader market dynamics extending beyond the grain complex itself.

Dollar Strength Emerges as Key Headwind

The primary driver of corn’s recent slip appears linked to external market forces. The U.S. dollar index climbed to $0.893 on Friday, creating headwinds for agricultural commodities denominated in dollars. When the dollar strengthens, imported corn becomes relatively more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially dampening international demand and weighing on prices. This relationship between currency movements and commodity prices remains one of the most critical dynamics for grain traders to monitor.

Speculative Positioning Shifts Amid Uncertainty

Commitment of Traders data released by the CFTC revealed important moves in managed money positions for the week ending January 27. Speculators reduced their net short positions by 9,274 contracts, primarily through establishing new long positions. This adjustment left their net short at 72,050 contracts, suggesting a slight reduction in bearish bets despite the overall market weakness. In contrast, commercial traders tightened their exposure by increasing their net short by 17,381 contracts, bringing their position to 187,342 contracts—a move typically interpreted as producers hedging anticipated harvests.

Export Demand Remains Strong Foundation

Despite the price slip, fundamental demand indicators tell a more optimistic story. Export sales commitments reached 57.694 million metric tons, representing 33% above the comparable period last year. This performance also exceeded the typical sales pace, capturing 71% of the USDA’s projected total exports against an average of 67%. The robust export commitment levels suggest that international demand remains resilient, potentially setting a floor under further price deterioration.

South American Weather Provides Mixed Signals

Argentina’s corn crop conditions offer both encouragement and caution. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange rated the nation’s corn crop as 46% good/excellent—a slight decline from 52% the prior week but substantially improved from the 31% rating from one year prior. This gradual improvement in South American production conditions adds another layer to the global supply outlook and may limit how much corn prices can appreciate until clearer weather patterns emerge.

Current Contract Pricing

The slip in corn prices manifested across the entire futures curve. March 2026 contracts finished at $4.28¼, down 2½ cents, while nearby cash corn held at $3.93¼, down 2 cents. May contracts declined 3¼ cents to $4.35¾, and July futures slipped 3¾ cents to close at $4.42. These declines across multiple contract months suggest the weakness is broad-based rather than concentrated in any single delivery period.