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A friend asked $ASTER if it can reach $100?
Currently around $0.67, reaching $100 would require a total market cap of $8 trillion, far exceeding ETH levels, with less than a 5% probability. The $100 target is almost impossible.
Key considerations:
1. Short-term (1-2 years): Probability ≈ 0. In a reasonable range for 2026: $0.7-$2.5, difficult to break $5.
2. Long-term (5-10 years): Must simultaneously meet: become the absolute leader in perpetual DEX, successful mainnet deployment, regulatory compliance, and a super bull market—missing any one is a deal-breaker.
Core risks: intense competition (comparable to Hyperliquid), regulatory pressure, token unlock selling pressure, technological implementation uncertainties.
It is recommended to abandon the $100 fantasy and instead focus on tracking three key indicators for Q1 2026: mainnet launch, TVL/trading volume, and buyback/burn. A reasonable target is $2-$5.